Top 3 Must-See Races in Arizona

Arizona's Political Landscape and Key Races to Watch

As the 2026 elections draw closer, Arizona is already preparing for a special election this year, highlighting the state's complex political environment. With every seat carrying significant weight, both major parties are navigating a landscape where nuances can determine outcomes.

Currently, six of the nine U.S. House members from Arizona are Republicans, while Democrats hold both Senate seats and key statewide offices, including governor, attorney general, and secretary of state. The state legislature remains tightly contested, adding another layer of complexity to the political scene.

Despite their ideological differences, both parties are facing similar challenges, particularly in terms of support from their respective state parties. This has led some high-level Republicans to turn to organizations like Turning Point USA, an independent group aligned with former President Donald Trump. Based in Phoenix, this organization has become a key player in mobilizing voters, especially those supporting MAGA candidates.

In 2024, Turning Point USA reported mobilizing over 315,000 voters in Arizona alone. This achievement is notable given that the state has only slightly more registered Republicans than Democrats. Even when the Arizona Republican Party distanced itself from election denialism in 2020 and 2022, Turning Point USA continued to back figures like Kari Lake, who ran for Senate and governor, claiming the elections were stolen.

On the Democratic side, Governor Katie Hobbs and Attorney General Kris Mayes are making strategic changes. In May, Robert Branscomb II, the newly elected chair of the state Democratic Party, criticized prominent Democrats, including Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, over staffing decisions. This led to his censure, and an upcoming vote could see him removed from leadership.

Meanwhile, top Democratic candidates are coordinating their fundraising and voter outreach efforts through the more organized Navajo County Democratic Party. This collaboration is crucial as the state continues to experience close margins in federal, statewide, and local races, with ongoing discussions about election security adding pressure on candidates.

Three Key Races to Watch

Special Election: Arizona’s 7th District

The 7th District in Arizona is up for grabs following the passing of Democratic Rep. Raúl Grijalva in March. His daughter, Adelita Grijalva, was declared the winner of the Democratic primary. Other contenders included Daniel Hernandez, known for saving the life of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords during a 2011 shooting, and Deja Foxx, a 25-year-old candidate. However, they fell short of Grijalva.

On the Republican side, Daniel Butierez, a painting company owner, was projected to win the primary against two other Latino American businessmen, Jimmy Rodriguez and Jorge Rivas. All three candidates support Trump’s policies on undocumented migration. Despite this, the seat has never been held by a Republican since its creation in 2000, making it a tough battle for Butierez.

Governor’s Race

For the governor’s race, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs launched his campaign with a rally hosted by Turning Point USA, which holds significant influence in the state. He shares an endorsement from Trump with Karrin Robson, who has a larger campaign fund than Biggs.

Democrats are backing incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs, known as the “Veto Queen” for her record-breaking vetoes. While she won against Kari Lake, who is now part of the Trump administration, Hobbs faces a tougher challenge in 2026. According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the race is considered a toss-up despite her status as an incumbent.

Attorney General

Incumbent Attorney General Kris Mayes, the first LGBTQ person and first mother to serve in this role, is running for a second term. Her narrow 280-vote victory in 2022 indicates a close race ahead. Republicans accuse her of targeting conservative groups, such as suing the federal government over the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts.

Her GOP opponents include Rodney Glassman, a former Democrat who has lost several races, and Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate. Petersen, though without Trump’s endorsement, has ties to the administration and supports policies on trans athletes and border security. He is seen as the front-runner in the GOP primary, while Glassman’s track record remains inconsistent.