China's Global Boom: Setting the World Ablaze

By igniting or exacerbating geopolitical conflicts across the globe, China has ensured that America will stay preoccupied in Asia, leaving them vulnerable when China decides to make its move.

All eyes are currently fixed Amidst the escalating strains between the United States, Israel, and Iran, there lie at the edges of this emerging confrontation two additional significant flashpoints where a large-scale conflict could potentially ignite. These areas are the India-Pakistan rivalry , which is deteriorating following a devastating terrorist attack, and the standoff Among the United States, the Philippines, and the People’s Republic of China in the South China Sea (SCS).

In both cases, Beijing is intervening to an unparalleled degree.

Terrorism in Kashmir Could Spark an India-Pakistan Conflict

After a bloody jihadist terror attack In the region of Pahalgam in Kashmir, where 26 Indian nationals were killed, New Delhi retaliated with a five-point diplomatic strategy aimed at preventing future incidents of terrorism.

Leaders from India called upon neighboring Pakistan, which they view as a major source of terrorism in the region, to carry out comprehensive counter-terrorism inquiries aimed at bringing the culprits to justice along with anyone inside Pakistan who might have aided them.

Predictably, Islamabad responded By asserting that "India's efforts to connect the Pahalgam incident with Pakistan are baseless, irrational, and defy reason." The Pakistani government subsequently warned darkly, "Both Pakistan and its military retain their full capability and readiness to safeguard the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

India responded by halting the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) , severing Pakistan’s access to the crucial water supplies of the Indus River—and potentially setting the stage for another conflict.

The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960—Still Remembered Despite Its Absence?

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 16, 1960, following nine years of difficult negotiations between reluctant adversaries from Pakistan and India. This treaty comprises 12 articles and includes eight annexes.

One of the key provisions In the IWT, India agreed to provide "unrestricted access" to Pakistan for the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers located in the western part of the region. Before it was annulled, the agreement had endured four decades of tension between Pakistan and India.

Nevertheless, Pakistan possesses a significant trump card: its robust partnership with China, which holds sway over several rivers that flow into India. Concerns abound in the area that, following India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), China might retaliate against India by withholding water from certain rivers under its jurisdiction that run through India, like the Brahmaputra. Galwan River .

Certainly, an underlying tension (I mean no disrespect with this wording) in the 2020 border disputes between India and China revolved around managing water resources along their shared boundaries. Tibetan Plateau .

Terrorism, water wars, and border clashes are now risking a very real war between nuclear-armed Pakistan and nuclear-armed India—with neighboring China potentially in a position to exploit the instability for their own gain.

The Contest for Control Over the Luzon Strait

To the east of this conflict, in which China may or may not be exerting malign influence, is the Luzon Strait between the Philippines and Taiwan. The United States Marine Corps is deploying its new NMESIS The (Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System) anti-ship missile platform aims to monitor that crucial strait. The objective is to discourage the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy ( PLAN ) from causing instability in the South China Sea — particularly to prevent China from intimidating its neighbor, the Philippines, which they have been doing for many years.

The Strait of Luzon It is a slim body of water dividing the southernmost point of Taiwan from the northern part of the Philippines. In order for China’s strategic containment plan targeting democratic Taiwan to succeed, Beijing requires dominance over the Luzon Strait. The U.S.-developed NMESIS system poses a risk of blocking this strait temporarily.

During this period, if Beijing decided to launch extensive operations against Taiwan, lacking access to the Luzon Strait could significantly impede the PLA Navy’s planned blockade and/or attack on Taiwan.

As the Marines installed the NMESIS system, they witnessed an unusual scene: the PLAN’s Shandong aircraft carrier task group navigating through the constricted channels. The Chinese fleet passed by. passed within the range of NMESIS and took up station just east of the Philippines once they successfully passed through the strait. It was a clear message to Washington from Beijing: we will not be deterred.

China Is Igniting the Largest Fire in Global History

The Shandong China's passage through the Luzon Strait served as a message from Chinese President Xi Jinping to U.S. President Donald Trump highlighting China's influence. retain The genuine benefits in the area lie with China rather than the United States, which currently boasts a much diminished military strength compared to previous years. Despite this, America’s remaining substantial military force is operating at full capacity, unlike China’s, which is more focused geographically within a single region.

Think about this: apart from the NMESIS platform, the Americans possess just one aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz —the pioneer of its category, and consequently the most senior—lingering around the Pacific. The bulk of the U.S. Navy’s fleet is mired in the Middle East.

All around us, the globe seems to be burning. The conflict in Ukraine teeters on the brink of involving major global players with just one wrong move. Similarly, the situation in Iran poses a significant risk for broader involvement. Meanwhile, turmoil now engulfs the Indian subcontinent.

These disputes have depleted American power, diverting both U.S. military forces and diplomatic efforts away from the crucial Indo-Pacific region. This strategic move is likely intentional on China's behalf. By igniting or exacerbating geopolitical tensions worldwide, the Chinese ensure that the Americans stay unsettled in Asia until they decide to make their move.

About the Creator: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert a senior national security editor at The National Interest and also contributes toPopular Mechanics. He frequently advises governmental bodies andprivate entitieson matters related to geopolitics. Weichert has been published extensively across platforms like theWashington Times, National Review,The American Spectator, MSN,Asia Timesand many more. Some of his notable works encompassWinning Space:How America Stays a Global Power,Biohacked:The Battle Over Controlling LifeinChina,andThe Shadow War:Iran’s Pursuitof Dominance.His latest publication,A Disaster of Our Own Doing:Why theWestFailedUkraine,is nowavailableforpurchase through all major retailers. Follow him onTwitter for updates. @WeTheBrandon .

Image: Shutterstock / Gil Corzo. [No change needed as it's likely a credit line for an image.]