Only One Bay Area Downtown Fully Recovered to Pre-Pandemic Levels

As the Bay Area's three major urban centers — San Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco — continue to grapple with the lingering effects of a pandemic that left their downtowns eerily quiet, one city has emerged as the most resilient in its recovery: San Jose.

Though often overlooked compared to its more famous neighbor across the bay, San Jose has quietly made significant strides in revitalizing its downtown. While it may not have the same historical prestige or global name recognition as San Francisco, recent data shows that its main corridor, Santa Clara Street, is now more vibrant than many would have predicted just a few years ago.

Mark Ritchie of Ritchie Commercial Real Estate, who operates offices in both San Jose and San Francisco, remarked on the surprising shift. “You never thought Santa Clara Street would be a lot livelier than the streets of downtown San Francisco, but it is — oh, much more so,” he said.

According to cell phone tracking data compiled by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, downtown San Jose has recovered approximately 90% of its pre-pandemic foot traffic, with December seeing nearly a full return to 2019 levels. In contrast, Oakland’s downtown activity sits at 74%, while San Francisco lags behind at just 59% through March of this year.

It’s important to note that San Jose’s downtown is significantly smaller than those of its counterparts — with about 10 million square feet of office space compared to San Francisco’s 80 million and Oakland’s 35 million. That means San Jose had less ground to cover in terms of recovery. Still, its progress is notable given the broader regional challenges.

All three cities are dealing with high office vacancy rates: San Francisco at 36%, San Jose at nearly 31%, and Oakland at 23%. Budget shortfalls plague all three municipalities, limiting their ability to address pressing issues like homelessness, public safety, and infrastructure development.

Despite these hurdles, Jeff Bellisario, executive director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, remains optimistic. “We're optimistic about all three cities,” he said, pointing to new leadership in each — Daniel Lurie in San Francisco, Barbara Lee in Oakland, and Matt Mahan in San Jose — as catalysts for change.

Each mayor has crafted a distinct strategy tailored to their city’s needs. San Francisco is focusing on converting empty office buildings into housing. Oakland is prioritizing public safety initiatives. And San Jose is leaning into its strengths in sports and entertainment to create a more dynamic downtown experience.

San Jose: A Downtown Revival

San Jose’s post-pandemic revival has been driven largely by nightlife and weekend activity. The city has become increasingly lively after 5 p.m., thanks to a growing number of restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues. Over the past decade, the construction of residential towers in the downtown core has contributed to increased street life.

Major companies like Adobe and Zoom maintain headquarters in the area, and NVIDIA’s recent convention brought over 25,000 visitors to the city — one of the largest events since the pandemic began. To attract more businesses, the city offers incentives such as two years of free parking and zero business tax for new leases, along with cash support for AI startups.

Mayor Mahan is pushing hard to transform downtown into a major sports and entertainment hub. He is working on a deal to keep the San Jose Sharks at the SAP Center until 2050 and is exploring the possibility of building a new stadium for the Earthquakes soccer team. The city also plans to enhance pedestrian pathways with art installations and a teal-colored guide connecting popular districts like Little Italy and San Pedro Square to the SAP Center.

In an effort to maintain cleanliness and safety, the City Council recently passed an ordinance banning sleeping on downtown sidewalks between 8 a.m. and midnight. With the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup coming to the region next year, Mahan envisions concerts, watch parties, drone shows, and other events drawing thousands into the heart of the city.

David Mulvehill, owner of five downtown restaurants and bars, sees the transformation firsthand. Just months ago, he opened The Pressroom and Bar Mercury, which now thrives with nightly crowds. “People are coming in for a drink or happy hour or brunch,” he said. “This is what all cities look like, you know? Now, it's like a real downtown.”

Still, not everything has gone according to plan. Google’s long-awaited Downtown West mega campus — once seen as a game-changer for the area — remains on hold, leaving a void in what was supposed to be a transformative development.

Oakland: Fighting Against Crime and Perception

Oakland has seen some reduction in crime over the past year, but the rate remains alarmingly high — more than double that of San Francisco and triple that of San Jose. The city experienced a spike in homicides in May, continuing to deter workers, visitors, and potential employers.

Downtown Oakland’s Chinatown reflects the ongoing struggle. Storefronts remain boarded up — many since the George Floyd protests in 2020 — with shopkeepers cutting holes in the wood to allow customers inside. Sue Wang, owner of King of Grocery on 8th Street, said she will only remove the boards when she feels truly safe. “I’m happy to take them down if I feel more comfortable that nothing could happen to my business,” she explained.

The recent indictment of former Mayor Sheng Thao on bribery charges hasn’t helped Oakland’s image. But newly elected Mayor Barbara Lee — a former congresswoman — is working to rebuild trust. She has begun meeting with top employers like Kaiser Permanente and Delta Dental to explore partnerships focused on economic growth and public safety.

Lee acknowledged the uphill battle ahead. “We’re not going to fix downtown overnight,” she said in an email, “but I'm focused on getting the basics right — safety, clean streets, clear permitting, and better city presence.”

The city faces a $245 million budget shortfall, making resource allocation difficult. Yet Bellisario believes there is hope. “You have a lot of people very much invested in the future success, which gives us hope that when we find those solutions, there's someone to invest in them.”

One such believer is Derreck Johnson, owner of Home of Chicken and Waffles in Jack London Square. He’s planning to buy the building that houses his restaurant, encouraged by falling crime rates and the new administration. “We need the region, the Bay Area, to have trust in our city again,” he said.

San Francisco: A Slow Turnaround

Before Daniel Lurie took office in November, small business owners like Tamara Freedman, a frame shop owner south of Market Street, described the city as being on edge. Her neighborhood had become synonymous with tent encampments and drug use, frequently featured in national news coverage.

Freedman supported the 2022 recall of then-District Attorney Chesa Boudin and later backed Lurie, who campaigned on cleaning up the streets and restoring vibrancy to downtown. One of his key initiatives involves creating a downtown financing district to facilitate the conversion of vacant office buildings into housing — a move intended to bring more residents and foot traffic to an area that historically empties out after work hours.

Lurie emphasized the importance of diversifying downtown uses beyond just office space. “It’s got to be about culture. It’s got to be about restaurants. It’s got to be about bringing tourists back and conventions back,” he said during a recent press conference.

While the road ahead is steep — Nordstrom recently closed its downtown location, and Macy’s Union Square store is up for sale — there are signs of cautious optimism. Sujata Srivastava of SPUR, a regional planning think tank, noted that successful downtowns must evolve beyond their reliance on corporate tenants.

San Francisco’s “Vacant to Vibrant” program has introduced pop-up retail stores into unused commercial spaces, helping inject life into empty storefronts. Bellisario pointed out that despite hitting rock bottom in late 2024 — with commercial real estate prices plummeting — the city may be poised for a comeback, particularly with the rise of the AI industry leasing property in both San Francisco and north San Jose.

“I think the story there has moved from doom loop to what is the next boom?” he said.

For Freedman, the changes under Lurie’s leadership are already noticeable. “Everybody feels better in general,” she said. “It’s quieter now, like the tension has died down.”