"Disasters by Choice": Texas Counties Struggle to Halt Construction in Flood Zones

Understanding the Challenges of Flood-Prone Areas in Texas

Texas is home to a significant number of areas that are at high risk for flooding. Camp Mystic, a private summer camp that has become a symbol of the deadly Central Texas floods, sits on land known for its vulnerability to devastating floodwaters. According to state estimates, nearly 1.3 million Texas homes are located in regions susceptible to dangerous flooding. A quarter of the state’s land carries some level of severe flood risk, putting an estimated 5 million Texans in potential danger.

Despite these risks, local governments—especially counties—have limited tools to regulate building in areas most prone to flooding. The state’s rapid growth, the desire for affordable land, and a lack of comprehensive planning for extreme weather events all contribute to this challenge. While cities can generally decide what is built within their boundaries, counties often lack the authority to implement strict zoning rules that could prevent people from living near water sources.

Regulatory Limitations and the Role of Federal Programs

Camp Mystic and many other camps along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County were outside city limits and not under the jurisdiction of the Kerrville City Council. This highlights the challenges faced by local governments in managing development in flood-prone areas. While there are some guardrails in place, such as federal flood insurance requirements, these programs have had mixed success. Counties can use limited federal funds to relocate residents out of flood zones, but these efforts often fall short.

Federal programs aimed at fortifying infrastructure are tied to hazard mitigation plans, which many rural counties in Texas do not have on file. Experts suggest that keeping people out of major flood zones altogether is unrealistic, given the human tendency to be drawn to water. “Everybody is drawn to water,” said Christopher Steubing, who heads the Texas Floodplain Management Association. “It becomes challenging when you’re telling people what they can and cannot do with their property.”

Population Growth and the Push for Affordable Housing

Texas has experienced significant population growth over the last decade, spurring a building boom in both urban and unincorporated areas. The Hill Country, including Kerr County, has seen a 9% population increase. This growth has led many families to move to Texas from more expensive parts of the country, seeking a lower cost of living. However, this movement often places them in areas more vulnerable to severe weather events like flooding and wildfires.

Some people don’t have a choice but to live in flood-prone areas where land is typically cheaper. Cities and towns often allow cheaper housing options, such as mobile and manufactured homes, in higher-risk areas. When a weather disaster destroys a mobile home park, it is often rebuilt in the same location, according to Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute who studies climate risk.

Balancing Development and Safety

Determining what can be built on flood plains is largely left to local officials, who may feel uneasy about limiting what property owners do with their land. In a state like Texas, known for prioritizing personal liberty, local officials may fear that imposing restrictions will harm the local economy or lead to political backlash. Often, the goal is not to stop development altogether but to create standards that make it less risky.

Even when new rules are adopted, older developments are often grandfathered in. How strictly local officials regulate development in flood plains comes down to political will. Robert Paterson, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s School of Architecture, said, “Fundamentally, disasters are a human choice. We can choose to develop in relation to high risk, or we can choose not to. We can stay out of harm’s way.”

Statewide Efforts and Future Considerations

Texas adopted its first statewide flood plan last year. As more people move outside of the state’s major urban areas, cities, towns, and counties have increasingly adopted flood plain management rules or enacted stricter ones. However, experts say that localities aren’t tackling development in flood zones quickly enough to keep up with the pace of massive weather disasters.

State lawmakers, currently weighing what measures to take in the aftermath of flooding, should consider ways to give cities and counties better tools to manage flood plain development. “States are the right level of government to do this because they’re close enough to their communities to understand what is needed in different parts of the state and to have regulations that make sense,” said Rumbach.

The Importance of Accurate Flood Mapping and Planning

There is evidence that some Texas cities are taking flood plain management seriously. Most parts of Texas saw relatively little development on flood plains during the first two decades of this century. However, parts of the Hill Country saw more flood plain development than other parts of the state.

As the Hill Country population grows, people are increasingly finding themselves in harm’s way. Local and state officials can make different decisions on how to develop around flood plains. “We can’t prevent extreme rainfall from happening, but we can choose where to develop, where to live, where to put ourselves,” said Avantika Gori, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University.

A confluence of factors leads to structures being built on flood plains, including lax regulations, outdated flood maps, and economic incentives for developers. Jim Blackburn, a professor of environmental law at Rice University, said, “I get it. People want to be by the river. It’s private property, and we don’t like to tell people what to do with their private property, but there comes a point where we have to say we’ve had enough.”

Conclusion

The federal regulation of development on flood plains is largely done through the National Flood Insurance Program, which subsidizes flood insurance in exchange for implementing flood plain management standards. Local governments must implement the program and map flood plains. While some cities have updated their rules, others have not kept pace with the growing risks.

Texas historically has been unfriendly to federal environmental regulation, which is viewed as excessive red tape that gets in the way of economic progress. This has led to the state being behind in reacting to more frequent and intense rainstorms fueled by a warming climate. Additional development can also leave flood maps even further out of date as more impermeable surfaces replace natural flood-fighting vegetation.

Experts encourage the state to fund studies similar to those conducted on past floods to help regulators and residents better understand how exactly future floods occur. They also advocate for further investments in “impact-based forecasting” to provide clearer warnings to residents about the potential dangers of flooding.