2025 Holiday Outlook: Marketers' Guide to Shopping Trends, Budget Cuts, and AI Ads

Navigating the Marketing Landscape in the Second Half of 2025

As the second half of 2025 begins, marketers are navigating a dynamic environment influenced by political and economic shifts. The year started with significant changes, including the re-election of Donald Trump and subsequent executive actions, increased tariffs on key imports, and heightened immigration enforcement. These developments have created an atmosphere of uncertainty that is likely to persist into the latter half of the year.

Emerging Winter Holiday Trends

One of the most notable trends is the shift in consumer behavior around holiday shopping. Tariffs and price fluctuations have prompted Americans to start their holiday shopping earlier than usual. According to recent data, 21% of holiday shoppers have already begun their shopping, marking a five-point increase from the previous year. This early start has led to a slight decrease in those planning to shop during Thanksgiving and the following weeks. However, there is a modest rise in consumers who intend to wait until the final two weeks of December, reflecting a cautious approach due to pricing volatility.

Marketers should focus on targeted strategies now and prepare for a surge in late December. Additionally, the impact of tariffs is influencing overall gift-buying habits. Millennials, Gen Z adults, and parents of Gen Alpha children are more likely to spend less and purchase fewer gifts, which could affect holiday shopping patterns. Understanding these trends is crucial for effective marketing strategies.

Health and Wellness as a Bright Spot

Despite the overall trend of spending cutbacks, health and wellness stands out as a positive area. New data indicates that while many discretionary categories are seeing reduced spending, health and wellness is the only category showing a net positive gain. This presents an opportunity for marketers to align their messaging with self-care, stress relief, and personal resilience.

Consumers are prioritizing their physical and mental well-being, even amid economic uncertainty. Marketers should leverage this insight to create campaigns that resonate with these values, ensuring they remain relevant and appealing to their target audience.

Consumer Skepticism Toward AI-Driven Advertising

The increasing use of AI in advertising is another critical trend. More brands are adopting AI tools to create and optimize ads, especially leading up to major shopping seasons. However, consumer perceptions of AI-driven advertising are mixed. Only 22% view such ads positively, while 37% have a negative perception. A significant portion of U.S. adults (30%) are less likely to buy from brands using AI in advertising, highlighting a growing divide between brand strategies and consumer preferences.

Younger consumers tend to be more receptive to AI-driven ads, whereas those aged 65 and older are more likely to avoid purchases from such brands. While many consumers feel AI ads have no impact on their buying decisions, over 40% are either deterred or swayed by them. This underscores the need for brands to balance automation with authenticity to maintain consumer trust.

Preparing for the Future

The second half of 2025 presents both challenges and opportunities for marketers. Shifting consumer timelines, tighter budgets, and rising expectations for authenticity are reshaping the path to purchase. Brands must rely on real-time insights, deliver authentic messaging, and remain agile in an environment where uncertainty is becoming the norm.

To stay ahead, marketers can benefit from engaging with experts and accessing comprehensive data sets. Events like live webinars offer valuable insights into key trends and how they may impact specific customer segments. By staying informed and adaptable, brands can navigate the complexities of the current market and position themselves for success.