WSJ Dollar Index Climbs 0.6% to 95.49

The WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.57 point or 0.61% today to 95.49

–Largest one-day point and percentage gain since Monday, May 12, 2025

—Up two of the past three trading days

–Off 9.18% from its record close of 105.14 hit Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022

–Highest closing value since Friday, June 6, 2025

–Off 7.83% from its 52-week high of 103.61 hit Friday, Jan. 10, 2025

–Up 0.90% from its 52-week low of 94.65 hit Thursday, June 12, 2025

–Down 4.40% from 52 weeks ago

–Month-to-date it is down 0.35%

–Year-to-date it is down 7.26 points or 7.07%

Data based on 5 p.m. ET values

Source: Tullett Prebon and Dow Jones Market Data

Dollar Strengthens, Treasury Yields Fall in Risk-Off Trade

1510 ET – Investors look eager to buy dollar and U.S. debt, at least for today. Treasury yields are falling, indicating strong demand ahead of the Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening. The moves indicate that investors are wary of taking risks amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Economic indicators point to a slowdown in the U.S., while the Fed is expected to avoid cutting rates for now. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.6%, on path for its largest daily gain in three weeks. The greenback is up 0.7% against the euro. Yields are down across maturities, with the 10-year at 4.395%. ( paulo.trevisani@wsj.com ; @ptrevisani)

Dollar Would Likely Weaken Without Israel-Iran Conflict

1355 GMT – The dollar would be trading at weaker levels if weren’t for the Israel-Iran conflict, Macquarie Group’s Thierry Wizman says in a note. That’s largely because the news around U.S. import tariffs isn’t “particularly good” and because data from outside the U.S. doesn’t point to a further deterioration relative to the U.S., he says. The geopolitical tensions demonstrate that the dollar still retains some of its safe haven status in certain situations, he says. “But we wouldn’t stretch this to say, however, that foreign traders have found renewed confidence in the U.S. and its political economy.” The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 98.201. ( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Investor Positioning on Dollar Most Underweight in 20 Years, BofA Survey Shows

1004 GMT – Investors are the most underweight on the dollar in 20 years, according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for June. Investors are most underweight on the dollar, U.S. stocks and energy in June and the most overweight on the eurozone, emerging markets and banks. The survey also shows 61% of investors consider the dollar to be overvalued in June, compared to 57% in May. ( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Euro Little Moved After German ZEW Survey

0935 GMT – The euro is little moved even after the latest ZEW survey of German economic sentiment exceeded expectations. The economic expectations gauge rose to 47.5 in June from 25.2 in May. Economists polled by the WSJ survey had expected 35.0. The current conditions index improved to -72.0 in June from -82.0 last month, against an expected -75.0. The euro last trades flat at $1.1556, little changed from levels seen before the data. ( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Sterling Falls as Geopolitical Tensions Hit Sentiment

0923 GMT – Sterling falls as worries over the Israel-Iran conflict weigh on risk sentiment, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. “Recent headlines indicating potential changes to tax policies for [non-U.K.-domiciled] individuals add additional uncertainty, influencing sterling sentiment.” Attention will soon pivot to Wednesday’s U.K. inflation data and Thursday’s Bank of England decision, they say. Until then, geopolitical developments will likely dominate, keeping sterling under pressure, they say. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3554. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8522 pounds. ( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Japanese Yen Could Benefit From Potential Rate Rises Later This Year

0840 GMT – The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates later in the year, supporting the Japanese yen, MUFG Bank analyst Lee Hardman says in a note. The BOJ left rates unchanged Tuesday amid trade uncertainty and announced plans to slow the pace of its bond-buying reduction. The BOJ clearly isn’t in a rush to raise rates further and will probably wait for uncertainty to ease, Hardman says. However, it could still lift rates this year, he says. “A trade deal between the US and Japan in the coming months could give the BOJ more confidence to hike rates further if global trade disruption eases as well.” The dollar trades steady at 144.76 yen.( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Euro Could Fall if German Economic Sentiment Survey Disappoints

0746 GMT – The euro could slip if a key survey on German economic sentiment underwhelms market expectations, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. The ZEW survey’s gauge on economic expectations is seen improving to 35.0 in June from 25.2 in May, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. However, concerns about the U.S.-EU trade standoff could limit the recovery of the gauge, he says. The euro trades flat at $1.1556 and ING sees at risk of falling to $1.15 in the near-term. The ZEW survey is due after 0900 GMT. ( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Dollar Climbs as Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Tensions

0629 GMT – The dollar edges higher as oil prices rise on news of new attacks in the Israel-Iran conflict, fuelling concerns over crude supply disruptions. The risk of an oil price spike due to Middle East tensions will likely keep the Federal Reserve in a cautious stance over interest-rate cuts at its two-day meeting starting Tuesday, Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. Higher oil prices are also positive for the dollar because the U.S. is one of the world’s largest oil producers. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.099. ( renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Taiwan Dollar, Thai Baht, Korean Won Most at Risk From Oil-Price Spike

0612 GMT – The Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, and Korean won are most at risk from higher oil prices, Barclays’ FICC Research team says. “Asian currencies generally weaken when oil prices rise due to an oil supply shock reflecting the negative economic hit and impact on current account balances,” the team says. The recent rise in Brent oil price to the $70/bbl-$75/bbl range from around $65/bbl is “generally unhelpful for largely oil-importing Emerging Asia,” the team says. Barclays’ estimates suggest Thailand, Korea and Taiwan are the most exposed. USD/TWD edges 0.1% lower to 29.45; USD/THB is 0.2% higher to 32.51; USD/KRW rises 0.3% to 1,363.52. ( ronnie.harui@wsj.com )