Poll Reveals Growing Doubt: Portland-Area Tax for Homeless Services Ineffective, Voters Believe

A poll of 822 likely November voters conducted in late May and early June found that only 46% would definitely or probably vote “yes” on a renewal of the regional homeless services tax that provides Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties with funding for outreach , shelter and housing for homeless people. Another 6% said they were undecided, but would “lean toward” voting “yes.”

That tax, which is assessed on businesses and high-income households, was first approved by voters in 2020, with nearly 58% of the vote. Lawn signs at the time promised to “end our homelessness crisis” through increased spending on services. Instead, homelessness has gotten worse. In fact, more people become homeless every month in the Portland area than are placed in housing.

That trend holds nationally. And officials in all three counties have argued that the money has allowed them to blunt its effects by using the regional tax revenue to shelter and house thousands more people than would otherwise have been helped.

Nevertheless, voters are growing increasingly sour on the regional tax, the recent poll shows. And the multiyear effort to renew the tax this year – five years before it expires – could be at risk.

“In sum, a potential measure to reauthorize the regional supportive housing services tax would face a challenging path to passage in November 2025,” reads a summary of the poll results by California-based FM3 Research, which conducted the poll on behalf of the Metro regional government.

An earlier push to put the measure on the May ballot was scrapped this spring.

One of the biggest hurdles Metro could face in trying to rally support for extending the tax appears to be voters’ growing skepticism that it’s working.

Upon hearing a description of what the tax revenue has funded, including rent assistance, shelter expansions and eviction prevention, a third of voters surveyed said they didn’t believe the services were “happening as described.” That share has risen by 10 points since the question was first asked in fall 2023, according to a summary of the poll results.

“You could see this winning and you could see this facing a difficult path depending on how the votes line up,” said Christian Gaston, a political consultant for Metro. “I think you’d face a real uphill battle.”

Voters are also skeptical of their local governments. Only 41% have a favorable view of Metro, which assesses, collects and distributes the homeless services tax. Just 29% of Multnomah County voters have a favorable view of their county government, according to a summary of the poll results. In contrast, 62% of Clackamas County voters and 51% of Washington County voters have a favorable view.

The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4%.

Multnomah County has the largest homeless population of the three counties and, while it also gets the largest portion of the regional tax revenue, it gets less money per homeless person than the other two counties.

The Metro Council will meet Tuesday to consider an amendment to the tax that would tie the income level at which people would owe it to inflation. The intent would be to ensure more middle income households aren’t subject to the 1% tax based on a 2019 metric. Metro can make this change without voter approval, but would need voter signoff to extend the tax.

The council may also discuss the future of the tax measure and whether it makes sense to continue to pursue a spot for it on the November ballot.

Lillian Mongeau Hughes covers homelessness and mental health for The Oregonian. Email her with tips or questions at lmhughes@oregonian.com . Or follow her on Bluesky @lmonghughes.bsky.social or X at @lrmongeau .

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