Oil Prices Surge Amid Israel-Iran Conflict Tensions

1534 ET – Crude oil futures rise as the conflict between Israel and Iran creates questions about the accessibility of oil supplies should it increase in severity. But traders and analysts see the upside as limited for crude oil. That’s because the world is expected to remain ‘well-supplied’ this year, according to a report from the IEA. As a result, apparent speculation that oil prices could surge back over $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-2022 is being met with doubts, says Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA in a note. Most-active WTI prices settle up 4.3% to $74.84 a barrel and Brent for August delivery gains 4.4% to $76.45. ( kirk.maltais@wsj.com )

Oil Rises on Continued Israel-Iran Conflict

1054 ET – The building conflict between Israel and Iran has WTI crude oil futures up 2.8%. “The energy complex continues to swing and sway in response to latest headlines regarding the Israel/Iran conflict and unusually wide daily trading ranges of as much as $8-9 [per barrel] in nearby crude futures,” says Ritterbusch and Associates in a note. The firm adds that the volatility in prices may continue through the rest of the week, unless “definition is achieved.” President Trump’s posts on Truth Social mention the conflict, but say little concrete affecting how the market perceives it. Brent crude is also up 2.8%. ( kirk.maltais@wsj.com )

Oil Climbs Over 2% on Middle East Risks

1411 GMT – Oil prices rose nearly 3% in afternoon trading as missile attacks between Israel and Iran continue and traders assess the latest remarks from President Trump on the conflict. Brent crude is up 2.5% to $75.05 a barrel, while WTI trades 2.4% higher to $71.93 a barrel. After the G7 meeting in Canada, Trump said he hasn’t returned to Washington to work on a cease-fire but something “much bigger than that” and that he wants “a real end” to the conflict. Iran’s oil export infrastructure hasn’t yet been targeted by the attacks. However, increased interference with navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf is raising concerns over shipping. “High call option volumes indicate that hedging for upside risk remains active, suggesting that investors are still positioning for potential price spikes this month as tensions persist,” Forex.com’s Razan Hilal says. ( giulia.petroni@wsj.com )

Oil Rises as Traders Watch Middle-East Developments

0806 GMT – Oil prices rise in early trade as the Israel-Iran conflict enters its fifth day and President Trump called for an evacuation of Tehran. Brent crude gains 1.2% to $74.10 a barrel, while WTI advances 1.2% to $72.65 a barrel. The benchmarks settled lower in the previous session after Iran signaled it was seeking to de-escalate hostilities and resume nuclear talks. However, while there is no sign of actual production losses as of yet, the market fears further escalation and the potential disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank kicks off its two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday. “Recent inflation data has been reassuring, but tariffs and the risk of an oil price spike due to Middle East tensions will likely keep the Fed in a cautious stance,” Swissquote says. ( giulia.petroni@wsj.com )

Oil Demand Likely Weighed by U.S.-China Trade Conflict

0104 GMT — Oil demand will continue to be weighed by the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and most of its trading partners, Commerzbank Research commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch writes in a note. Despite recently reaching a partial agreement, the U.S. and China still have high tariffs on goods from the other country, Fritsch says. This may further curb Chinese demand for oil, which has already lost momentum due to a weak economy and the ongoing EV transition, Fritsch adds. “As a result, demand for diesel is barely increasing and demand for gasoline is even falling,” Fritsch says. ( amanda.lee@wsj.com )