Nuclear Arms Race Set to Escalate as Control Crises Worsen, SIPRI Warns

Global nuclear weapon stockpiles are expanding and being modernised, indicating the onset of a “dangerous” arms race coinciding with a decline in arms control measures, says the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

In the 56th edition of the ‘SIPRI Yearbook 2025’, the think tank said that the nine nuclear-armed nations namely, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the UK and the US had persisted in upgrading their nuclear capabilities in 2024.

Some of these nations also deployed new weapon systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the year.

The estimated global inventory of nuclear warheads stood at 12,241 in January 2025. Of these, about 9,614 were considered active military stockpiles ready for potential use, which is an increase from the previous year by approximately 29 warheads.

An estimated 3,912 of these warheads were deployed with operational missile and aircraft systems, mirroring the numbers from January 2024. The rest were stored centrally.

The yearbook notes that close to 2,100 of the deployed warheads were on high alert status on ballistic missiles, which are predominantly owned by Russia or the US. A smaller number of high-alert warheads are believed to be maintained by France, the UK, and potentially China.

SIPRI has assessed that China's nuclear arsenal now comprises at least 600 warheads.

SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) associate senior fellow Hans Kristensen said: “The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end.

“Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”

The global count of nuclear warheads is on a downward trend, but this reduction is solely attributable to Russia and the US decommissioning their obsolete warheads, according to the yearbook.

“It seems likely that the rate at which retired warheads are dismantled may soon be outpaced by the rate at which new warheads enter global stockpiles each year” says a statement in the yearbook.

In the introduction to the yearbook, SIPRI director Dan Smith highlights the difficulties surrounding nuclear arms control and cautions against the potential for a new nuclear arms race. Smith also warned about this emerging arms race.

The yearbook also notes renewed discussions within regions such as East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East on nuclear policies and capabilities, which could indicate a possibility for additional countries to pursue their own nuclear weapons programmes.

In claims repeated by both Belarus and Russia during 2024, Russia allegedly stationed nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.

Several European Nato members have expressed readiness to host US nuclear weapons within their territories.

Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his stance that France's nuclear deterrent should encompass a 'European dimension.'

Beyond its comprehensive examination of nuclear disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation, the SIPRI yearbook provides extensive data and insights into global military spending, international arms transfers, weapons manufacturing, multilateral peacekeeping operations, armed conflict dynamics, cybersecurity threats, space security governance, and other relevant topics.

A study from SIPRI released in December 2024 revealed sales of arms and military services by the world’s 100 largest companies reached $632bn in 2023 , driven by wars, conflicts and rising tensions.

"Nuclear arms race to intensify amid control crisis, says SIPRI" was originally created and published by Army Technology , a The News Pulseowned brand.

The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.