New Jersey's Governor Race Set to Test Trump's Enduring Appeal

Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli will face off for New Jersey’s governorship in November following a historic primary election.

Sherrill, a four-term congressmember, prevailed over five high-profile and often well-funded opponent s. Ciattarelli, the 2021 Republican nominee for governor who came within 3 points of ousting incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy, easily defeated his four rivals .

The primary was the most expensive in New Jersey history, with more than $120 million spent over two years of campaigning, and the first in 44 years without a ballot design that gave party bosses extraordinary influence.

Nevertheless, the Democratic and Republican establishments, who in the main backed Sherrill and Ciattarelli, came out on top.

The general election will be watched nationally as a test of Trump’s appeal in a traditionally blue state that he lost by a closer-than-expected six points last year. Only one other state, Virginia, has a gubernatorial election this year, so both states’ outcomes in November will also be read for clues into next year’s midterms.

The results show New Jersey’s traditional political party machines were still able to perform without the “county line” — a structure used for decades by party leaders that gave the candidates they endorsed favorable placement on the primary ballot. That follows a judge’s 2024 decision to toss the line in the Democratic primary and a new law mandating office block ballots for both parties, similar to those used in every other state.

Among the Democrats, Sherrill had long been the frontrunner, but not the prohibitive one. With the backing of many but not all of New Jersey’s county leaders, the four-term former Navy helicopter pilot and former federal prosecutor has found herself her opponents’ top target for allying with power brokers in Democratic-rich counties in North and Central Jersey. She defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and former Senate President Steve Sweeney.

But Sherrill projected herself as the top general election candidate early, using the last few weeks of the primary to reinforce Republican frontrunner Jack Ciattarelli’s association with Trump and touting legislation she introduced in April to require Elon Musk and top DOGE staff to take drug tests.

“MAGA’s coming for New Jersey, with Trump -endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli. We’ve gotta stop them,” says a recent Sherrill ad.

Sherrill faced the most caustic criticism from Fulop, the longtime mayor of Jersey City who eschewed the political bosses he once courted and has run to Sherrill’s left with aggressive and detailed policy plans, including support for the type of suburban residential development that has proven a liability for Democrats in general elections. He called her “Tammy 2.0,” referring to First Lady Tammy Murphy’s dropped bid for U.S. Senator last year that stirred resentment in the party base, and criticized her for refusing to “take any position that is risky.”

Ras Baraka, the mayor of Newark, also ran to Sherrill’s left and appealed to Democrats by aggressively challenging the Trump administration, resulting in his widely-condemned trespassing arrest at a Newark ICE facility last month. The arrest gave him massive publicity, but it failed to propel him to the top of the field, and his fundraising lagged his rivals.

Sweeney and Gottheimer ran more moderate campaigns, with Sweeney voting to repeal New Jersey’s policy that limits local law enforcement’s cooperation with immigration authorities and Gottheimer pledging to cut property taxes by 15 percent.

Meanwhile, Sean Spiller, the former mayor of Montclair and president of the 200,000-member New Jersey Education Association, ran a campaign with progressive messaging fueled almost exclusively by a super PAC funded with $40 million from his union, making it by far the most expensive of any candidate’s effort.

The size of the field and their extensive resources led to the most expensive statewide primary in decades. That was largely because of progressives’ successful challenge of the county line last year. While this was the second Democratic primary not to feature it (and the first Republican one), the 2024 U.S. Senate primary was over before a judge barred the line since Murphy dropped out and effectively handed the party nomination to Andy Kim.

The Republican primary was nothing like the Democratic one. Two of the main candidates, former radio host Bill Spadea and Ciattarelli, spent most of it competing as much for an endorsement of Trump as they did appealing to the state’s 1.6 million registered Republicans. The other, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, ran as an anti-Trump Republican.

Spadea, who has long aired anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and cast doubt on the results of the 2020 election, appeared to be in the running for Trump’s endorsement. Ciattarelli had in 2015 called Trump a “charlatan” and, while he gradually warmed to him, largely sought to avoid association with him in his 2021 campaign.

But Ciattarelli recently expressed unbridled support for Trump, while his allies dug through thousands of hours of Spadea’s programs to find Trump criticism. They also highlighted fundraising and poll results that showed Ciattarelli way ahead. It culminated with an ebullient Ciattarelli getting a photo op sit down with Trump at his golf club in Bedminster. Not to be outdone, Spadea showed up the next day and met with Trump in the golf club’s hallway, but did not post a photo of the encounter.

It paid off for Ciattarelli with a Trump endorsement, writing on Truth Social that “Jack, who after getting to know and understand MAGA, has gone ALL IN, and is now 100% (PLUS!)”

Spadea sought to reassure disappointed supporters by saying Trump “endorsed a poll, not a plan” in Ciattarelli. But most political observers counted that as the end of the Republican primary, and subsequent events showed it. Spadea has struggled in fundraising, earning only about half of the matching funds he was eligible for from the state.

New Jersey’s off-year general election in November — along with Virginia — will be read as a bellwether for the 2026 midterms. While Democrats have an 800,000 registered voter advantage over Republicans, New Jersey voters have often been willing to elect Republicans as governor. And the GOP in recent years has gained more than 100,000 voters, while Trump’s relatively close loss in the state in 2024 has given Republicans hope of taking the governorship.