David Samson Forecasts the Future of the WNBA

WNBA players are organizing in the lead-up to the All-Star game next month, and made their first big move in collective bargaining agreement talks with the league before a high-profile matchup last weekend between the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces.

The statement notably was not read by Caitlin Clark, but her teammates Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson. That will need to change in the months between now and the deadline for a new CBA this fall, according to Meadowlark Media sports business analyst and former Miami Marlins president David Samson.

The statement argued that “As the league grows, it’s time for the CBA that reflects our true value. We are fighting for a fair share of business that we built.”

But on his show Nothing Personal on Tuesday , Samson argued that from a pure business sense, players seem to have an outsized perception of their value.

“What the players in the WNBA don’t realize is they’re too early for this,” Samson said.

“Their minimum salary right now … let’s say they make 60 grand or 65 grand, and the highest-paid player can make, let’s say, 250 grand. And you’d say, ‘My god, the minimums in the NBA are seven figures, in baseball it’s approaching seven figures. It can’t be that we’re playing for 66 grand a year.’ Until you look at the business model and you realize the reason why you’re getting paid that is the operations have been getting crushed, year-over-year, for years. And they’re not about to take the momentum that currently exists and monetize it for the players. They’re taking the moment that exists and the momentum that exists, and they’re monetizing it for themselves in order to pay down debt. In order to make themselves whole for their initial investment.”

David Samson believes the WNBA is more likely to reinvest in its debt and grow league and team infrastructure before cutting out a big slice of the pie for players. To that end, the league sold equity in itself to raise $75 million in 2022. Commissioner Cathy Engelbert used that money to hire more league employees and launch a charter flight program for team travel.

With the league focused on putting money back into the business, Samson sees a major gap between what players want and what owners will want.

“My concern is that when there is a level of delusion that creates a gap between players and management that is so significant that that gap is something that even Evel Knievel cannot overcome, I don’t know how you get a deal,” he explained. “When the expectation is that the WNBA is rolling in money, and that that money ought to be given to the players … I just don’t know what audience they will get for this internally or externally. We will find out right now who’s got the power with the WNBA.”

Right now, WNBA players reportedly receive around 10 percent of “Basketball-Related Income,” a paltry number compared with the roughly 50-50 split in the NBA. The league just signed a broadcast rights deal that nearly quadrupled its revenue in that category alone. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine a significant improvement in player compensation that also coincides with a continued windfall for owners and the league office.

Samson is less optimistic of that, but believes one person could change the state of affairs: Caitlin Clark.

“I could make an easy argument that the WNBA players’ association ought to be telling all of them to stay quiet. And then when we have something to say from Caitlin, that will be what is meaningful because that will gain public sympathy, public approval,” Samson argued. “And above that, it may even have sway with owners.”

While players are reportedly mobilizing to take advantage of the bully pulpit they will have in mid-July for the WNBA All-Star game, Samson also believes that Clark will eventually speak out. Given that she drives viewership, revenue, and attention to a greater degree than perhaps any athlete in any other league, Clark has the power to change the nature of the talks with a single post or press conference.

And David Samson believes she will do just that before long.

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