Tropical Storm Alvin Forms in Eastern Pacific: Watch for Potential Hurricane Upgrade

The initial tropical storm of 2025 in the Western Hemisphere is expected to appear offshore from the southwestern coast of Mexico later this week, roughly two weeks following the start of the year. Eastern Pacific hurricane season .

Where it is now: The map below illustrates the disturbance being tracked by the National Hurricane Center with a strong likelihood of developing into a tropical depression or storm near Acapulco, Mexico. This system is anticipated to likely form into either Tropical Depression One-E or Tropical Storm Alvin as its central circulation strengthens and becomes more organized.

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Is this a threat?: The system is located a few hundred miles south of the Mexican Pacific Coast and is gradually shifting in a west-northwesterly direction.

The majority of computer forecast models suggest future-Alvin should continue moving west-northwest over the next day or two before it then turns northward. If Alvin develops a solid core of thunderstorms, it could strengthen into a hurricane for a short time late this week.

Following this, it is anticipated to transition into a more adverse setting characterized by wind shear, colder waters, and drier air. The uncertainty lies in whether the system will weaken off the shore or potentially curve northeastwards towards a section of the Mexican coastline in a diminished condition by Saturday.

At any rate, high surf and rip currents are likely along parts of Mexico's Pacific coast west of Acapulco later this week.

Heavy localized rainfall is anticipated along the coastline, typically to the north and east of the storm’s path, which could lead to potential flash floods and landslides.

The season is beginning: As senior meteorologist Chris Dolce mentioned previously this month, the The official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is on May 15. , two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season.

Many tropical storms and hurricanes originating in the Eastern Pacific typically travel in a west-northwesterly direction before dissipating over the open sea. However, some systems make landfall, which was demonstrated in 2023 when the remnants of one such storm impacted land. Hurricane Hilary In the Desert Southwest region and classified as Category 5 Hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico.

Sara Tonks Is a meteorology specialist at weather.com and holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Georgia Tech in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, as well as another master’s degree from Unity Environmental University focused on Marine Science.