Soviet Satellite Set to Plunge Toward Earth in Days, Scientist Warns of Meteorite-Like Impact

A half-tonne A Soviet space vehicle is scheduled to return and crash back into Earth next week. , with specialists forecasting it could strike “like an asteroid” at approximately 150 mph.

The Kosmos 482 probe, sent into space by the USSR in 1972 as part of an expedition to Venus, has been orbiting Earth for 53 years.

Space tracking specialist Dr Marco Langbroek has determined that the decommissioned satellite is expected to start descending around May 10, with some variation of a few days either way.

Many on Earth are alarmed as the spacecraft appears set to endure re-entry largely unscathed thanks to its heat shield, specifically engineered to withstand Venus’s extreme conditions.

Kosmos 482 was constructed as a companion mission to Venera 8, which successfully touched down on Venus in 1972 and sent back information for more than 50 minutes prior to being overwhelmed by the planet’s intense temperatures.

The Soviet Union accomplished multiple pioneering feats in space exploration, such as deploying the first artificial satellite, Sputnik, and sending the first human, Yuri Gagarin, into orbit.

Nevertheless, Kosmos 482 failed to accomplish its objective because of an issue with the upper stage of its Soyuz rocket launcher.

The setback deprived the spacecraft of enough speed to attain Venus, consigning it instead to an elliptical orbit around our planet.

The spacecraft has a weight slightly below 500kg and spans approximately one meter in size, which means its collision hazard is akin to that of a meteorite, as stated by Dr Langbroek.

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Upon returning to Earth, the probe is anticipated to be traveling at approximately 150 mph (242 km/h).

Although the spaceship has a landing chute, specialists are skeptical it will work after being in space for fifty years.

"I wouldn’t count on that being successful now. I’d expect that, should it survive re-entry, it would land with quite an impact," Dr Langbroek stated.

The precise touchdown spot is still unclear, as Dr Langbroek pointed out that it might land anywhere within the range of latitudes from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south.

This extensive region covers large parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas, as well as the whole of Africa and Australia.

The landing zone extends as far north as the United Kingdom and as far south as New Zealand.

"As is most likely, it would end up in one of the oceans," Dr Langbroek penned in an article for The Space Review.

The ambiguity regarding the re-entry date will lessen as we approach the event itself, yet considerable uncertainties will persist even on the day of occurrence.

Dr Langbroek clarified that "Given this craft was engineered to withstand entry into the Venus atmosphere, it might endure re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere without damage and make an undamaged landing."

"There aren't particularly high risks, but they're also not non-existent," he said.

The Smithsonian astronomer Jonathan McDowell succinctly told Sky News: "This is a half-ton object plummeting from the sky at several hundred miles per hour. It would cause significant damage if it strikes someone."

Satellite observers keep monitoring the spacecraft's spin as it descends from orbit to collect additional information about where it might land.

Experts have forecasted Kosmos 482's descent back to Earth more than once before now.

The Russian astronomer Pavel Shubin had earlier predicted that it would collide with Earth sometime between 2023 and 2025.

Additional examinations conducted in 2019 and 2022 confirmed these forecasts, with models indicating a potential return phase occurring sometime between the middle of 2024 and halfway through 2027.

Concern over space debris has been growing since the dawn of the Space Age in the 1950s.

The European Space Agency states that about 3,000 defunct satellites are circling our planet, as opposed to roughly 2,000 functioning ones.

These decommissioned spacecraft can pose hazards to human safety as the area around Earth gets progressively more congested with space debris.

Dr Langbroek pointed out that the ambiguity regarding the re-entry date will lessen as we approach the event, yet significant uncertainties will still persist even on the day itself.

For now, scientists can only continue monitoring the spacecraft's decaying orbit as it makes its final approach.