Pandemic Threat Looms: How the Next Global Crisis Is Already Among Us

The individual who forecasted the Covid-19 catastrophe prior to it claiming millions of lives worldwide has expressed concerns about an upcoming pandemic.

David Quammen, a seasoned science journalist who earlier cautioned about the potential for a coronavirus originating from a wet market in China, now points out that avian influenza poses the greatest risk of sparking the subsequent global pandemic. This urgent alert comes after the government confirmed the presence of the H5N1 strain in a sheep at a farm in Yorkshire earlier this week.

This discovery, combined with rising infection rates domestically, has intensified anxiety amongst public health officials and specialists. In an interview with MailOnline, Quammen stated: “My worries regarding avian influenza run deep. Should we speculate on which pathogen might trigger the subsequent major outbreak today, most scientists would likely argue that bird flu holds the highest potential for becoming our next viral pandemic.”

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He pointed out that unpredictability is an intrinsic part of viral mutations, emphasizing their random character. He stated, “There’s always significant randomness involved since these viruses exhibit high mutation rates, and mutation itself is essentially a haphazard process.” On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. has experienced substantial damage from H5N1 across numerous farms, resulting in the destruction of over 1,000 dairy herds, wiping out approximately 168 million poultry, and leading to more than 70 confirmed human infections, one of which was fatal due to the pathogen.

Quammen delivered a serious caution regarding the possibility of avian influenza mutating and swiftly spreading amongst people, likening it to the Covid-19 outbreak. He stated, "Similar to how the Covid virus transitioned from an uncommon pathogen to one present in both human populations and wild animals across the globe, this scenario could begin afresh overnight with bird flu."

The US has been on high alert since the H5N1 strain was initially discovered within its borders in 2022, according to reports. the Mirror The virus has crossed over from one species to another, affecting various creatures including felines, raccoons, and even dolphins.

What are the ways that H5N1 avian influenza is transmitted to people?

There have been instances of human infections due to interaction with these creatures, but there is currently no indication of person-to-person spread. Even though the CDC states that the risk to humans remains minimal, some specialists warn otherwise. A mutation or reassortment among viruses might increase the likelihood of this spreading to individuals.

The Global Virus Network (GVN) is calling on governments to enhance their surveillance and biosecurity measures to avoid another pandemic similar to the original chaos caused by COVID-19. In light of the unpredictable nature of mutations, Quammen commented, “It could require four or five specific changes occurring together, with each mutation being quite unlikely. Therefore, the likelihood of these precise four or five alterations happening simultaneously is significantly lower.”

The evolving avian influenza virus represents a growing risk, as warned by a healthcare specialist who highlighted its capability to trigger the subsequent global epidemic. "Within each infected bird, the avian flu is multiplying into billions daily—it likely happens almost every single day," he stated.

My impression is that this virus is continuously reproducing itself globally at present, infecting millions of wild birds, likely millions of chickens, and several cows as well as various other mammals.

Every single instance of viral replication in each animal is like spinning a roulette wheel. While I am not stating that avian influenza is guaranteed to cause the next global pandemic, I am suggesting that it remains a highly probable scenario.

Starting from March 2024, the United States has recorded 70 verified human instances of avian influenza, predominantly mild ones affecting mainly farmworkers who have had direct exposure to sick poultry or cattle. Additionally, traces of the virus were found in milk available at supermarkets, which raises “definitely” significant worries regarding both food security and community well-being, as stated by Quammen.

Across England, more than 30 outbreaks have occurred on farms, largely concentrated in the eastern regions. Given that there are approximately 34 billion chickens worldwide, often kept under cramped conditions within large-scale agricultural facilities, Quammen pointed out that such setups serve as breeding grounds for viral mutations. “These extensive industrial farming operations act like incubators for virus development,” he warned.

Quammen also pointed out broader human activities—like climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding, and unhygienic living environments—as major contributors to raising the likelihood of future outbreaks.