How Many Hurricanes Are Predicted for the 2025 Atlantic Season? NOAA Speaks
Atlantic hurricane season 2025 is almost here and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says a "confluence of factors" are set to fuel tropical cyclones in coming months.
NOAA officials said to get ready for potential threats now As they issued a prediction indicating a 60% probability of experiencing a higher-than-average season.
Specifically, NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

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A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.
Before announcing the 2025 outlook, NOAA's acting administrator Laura Grimm said last year's outlook was "right on the money."
In 2024, eighteen tropical storms developed, among which were the destructive hurricanes Helene and Milton. According to National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, this period marked the country’s most fatal hurricane season since 2005, with over 400 deaths. Additionally, it ranks as the third-most expensive season recorded, following closely behind those of 2017 and 2005.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs until November 30. The initial storm name will be Andrea.
Why the above-average forecast?
NOAA stated in a press release that the season is anticipated to exceed typical levels because of several contributing elements. These include sustained neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions, elevated sea surface temperatures, predictions of mild wind shear, and the possibility of increased activity triggered by the West African Monsoon—a key origin point for Atlantic hurricanes.
("ENSO" stands for "El Niño - Southern Oscillation," which is the comprehensive term for the climate cycle involving both El Niño and La Niña phenomena affecting global weather patterns. When we say "ENSO-Neutral," it indicates that conditions are not aligned with either an El Niño or a La Niña phase.]
NOAA stated that all these factors generally promote the development of tropical storms.
Meteorologist Andy Hazelton The analyst from the University of Miami, posting on X, commented that it was "a fairly sensible forecast for the season from NOAA. I find their level of confidence surprising since we're expected to have an above-average activity, but with the possibility of experiencing only mild La Niña conditions or stayingneutral during the peak months, wind shear seems likely to remain minimal," he added.
He further stated that the temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean will likely dictate whether the number of storms this season leans more towards the lower end or the upper end of the predicted range.
What are the predictions for the 2025 hurricane season according to other sources?
Other leading forecasters are anticipating an intense season. The hurricane prediction group at Colorado State University , led by Phil Klotzbach, predicted 17 total named storms, of which 9 will be hurricanes, in its April forecast.
AccuWeather's forecast , which came out in March, calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 7-10 will be hurricanes.
The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020.
Although no tropical cyclones have developed in the Atlantic or Pacific yet this year, the situation remains unchanged. National Hurricane Center indicates that a tropical depression might develop over the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Mexico by late May. However, it’s too early to determine whether this system will affect any coastal regions.
Ways to get ready for hurricane threats
According to the National Hurricane Center, the optimal time to get ready for a hurricane is prior to the start of hurricane season.
It is crucial to comprehend your residence's susceptibility to storm surges, floods, and winds. Here is your checklist Here are items to check off before the hurricane season starts. Below are some USA TODAY links worth saving: how to ready your house for a hurricane and How to assemble an evacuation kit should you need to leave quickly.
2024 proved to be a catastrophic year due to hurricanes.
The death toll from Helene reached at least 241 in the contiguous United States, making it the most lethal individual storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which resulted in approximately 1,400 fatalities.
Other fatal storms in 2024 encompassed Hurricanes Beryl and Milton , each of which resulted in more than 40 fatalities within the United States.
The article initially appeared on USA TODAY: How many hurricanes are in forecast for 2025 Atlantic season? Here's what NOAA predicts
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