Expert Who Forecasted COVID Warns: Next Pandemic's Source Is Already Among Us

A person who accurately predicted the arrival of Covid-19 prior to its global havoc is now raising alarms about another possible pandemic menace.

Science writer David Quammen, who had earlier indicated that a Coronavirus Could emerge from wet markets such as those seen in China, now points towards avian influenza as the leading contender to cause the subsequent worldwide health emergency. These warning remarks arrive as the UK Government announces that a farm in Yorkshire has tested positive for the H5N1 strain of influenza in some of its sheep.

This situation, coupled with rising instances in the US, has sparked concern amongst medical experts and academics alike. In an interview with MailOnline, Quammen stated: “My worries regarding avian influenza run deep. Should we venture a guess as to which pathogen could spark the subsequent major outbreak today, most scientists might argue that bird flu holds the highest potential for becoming our next pandemic-causing virus.”

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"There’s always significant unpredictability involved since these viruses exhibit high mutation rates, and mutations occur essentially at random,” he noted. In the US, the H5N1 outbreak has rapidly spread across numerous farms, affecting over a thousand dairy herds, resulting in the culling of roughly 168 million poultry birds, and causing more than 70 human cases—including the first documented death linked to this strain.”

Quammen cautioned regarding the possibility of avian influenza mutating and transmitting between humans, which could have severe consequences. "Just the same as the way the Covid The virus shifted from being an uncommon pathogen to becoming prevalent among both human beings and wildlife globally, potentially occurring as early as tomorrow with avian influenza," he cautioned, according to the report. the Mirror .

How does H5N1 avian influenza transmit to people?

The H5N1 virus, initially recognised in the USA in 2022, has shown up in several species such as felines, raccoons, skunks, wild canines, Ursids, and cetaceans. So far, instances among humans have only been linked to contact with affected creatures, and there isn’t verified proof of person-to-person spread.

Even though the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has indicated that the risk of avian influenza to people remains minimal, specialists warn that mutations or reassortments—instances where two distinct viruses infect a host simultaneously and exchange genetic information—could increase the likelihood of it transmitting to humans.

The Global Virus Network (GVN) is calling on global administrations to improve monitoring efforts and enforce tougher biosafety protocols to avoid a recurrence of the early chaos caused by COVID-19. As Quammen explained, “It could require four or five specific mutations occurring together for this to happen; each mutation itself being quite unlikely, making the simultaneous occurrence of all these changes even less probable.”

However, as the virus mutates quickly, the danger might be increasing. He stated, "The avian influenza is reproducing itself by the billions within every single infected bird—likely daily."

My impression is that this virus is continuously reproducing itself globally at present, infecting millions of wild birds, likely millions of chickens, and several cattle as well as various other mammals.

Every single instance of viral replication in each animal can be likened to a turn of the roulette wheel. I am not suggesting that avian influenza is guaranteed to become our next global health crisis; rather, I am stating that it remains a highly plausible scenario.

Since March 2024, there have been 70 confirmed human cases of bird flu reported in the US, which were mostly mild and occurred mainly among farm workers who had been exposed to infected poultry or dairy cows. Notably, traces of the virus were detected in milk available in supermarkets, prompting Quammen to express his "absolutely" heightened concerns for food safety and public health.

At the same time, over 30 outbreaks have occurred on farms in England, mostly affecting areas in the east. With around 34 billion chickens worldwide frequently housed under cramped industrial settings, Quammen warned that such circumstances provide ideal breeding grounds for virus mutations. “Industrial agricultural systems act like Petri dishes fostering the development of new viruses,” he stated.

Quammen also pointed out broader human activities—like climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding, and poor sanitation—as key elements increasing the likelihood of future outbreaks.