Wisconsin Faces Workforce Aging: Strategies for Communities and Employers

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• Reporter Natalie Yahr spoke to Matt Kures, who researches state labor and demographic trends as a community development specialist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Division of Extension.

• The current labor market is good for people who have a job right now, but challenging for those looking for a job, Kures says.

• Wisconsin’s working-age population is projected to keep declining into 2030, before leveling off in the subsequent decade, fueling challenges for certain industries.

• Industries with particularly large shares of older workers include: real estate, transportation, warehousing, wholesale trade, manufacturing and public administration.

Wisconsin Watch is starting a new beat called pathways to success, exploring what Wisconsin residents will need in order to build and keep thriving careers in the future economy — and what’s standing in their way.

To learn more about the jobs Wisconsin will most need to fill in the coming years, we spoke to Matt Kures, who researches state labor and demographic trends as a community development specialist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Division of Extension.

The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Which figures do you believe most effectively illustrate the current state and future trajectory of Wisconsin’s labor market?

The unemployment figures remain close to all-time low levels; however, this isn't translating into substantial increases in new hires. In fact, the pace at which companies are bringing on board new staff members has decreased. Additionally, there's been a decline in layoffs as well. Consequently, many enterprises seem to be keeping their current workforce intact rather than letting workers go when perhaps they might typically do so under different circumstances. Some lingering effects from the pandemic persist regarding staffing decisions, causing employers to tread cautiously before making changes to their employee counts.

The number of job openings has ticked down as well. We’re still seeing some uncertainty from a lot of businesses in terms of what’s going to happen with inflation, interest rates, tariffs and just the broader U.S. economy.

Those numbers put together tell of a labor market that’s good for people who have a job right now, but maybe a little bit challenging for people looking for a job.

And how about when it comes to long-standing trends in Wisconsin’s labor market or demographics? Are there numbers you like to bring up that you think people don’t tend to know?

When examining the decline in the working-age population from 2020 to 2030, followed by stabilization between 2030 and 2040, it becomes clear that there won’t be significant increases in the number of people within this demographic in the state. This trend generally applies statewide; however, certain counties such as Dane and Eau Claire are expected to see growth during this period.

And then also, the combination of individuals of retirement age or nearing retirement age that are going to either leave the labor force or change the types of work they’re doing. If we look at the manufacturing sector, for instance, we have almost 131,000 individuals in that industry who are aged 55 or older, or almost 28% of that industry. So in those large employment sectors in the state, how do we think about replacing the workforce or augmenting the workforce going forward due to retirements or just shifting abilities due to the aging population?

How are the challenges or opportunities different in different parts of the state, say in urban areas versus more rural areas?

Definitely, numerous rural regions boast an aging populace and this trend is expected to persist, which means they'll probably encounter significant difficulties due to these demographic changes across different age groups. Additionally, in such locations, creating suitable housing can be quite challenging as it aims to lure a fresh workforce. Thus, these issues tend to compound each other.

Do you consider Wisconsin to be experiencing a labor shortage?

The current labor shortage may not be as severe as it was about two or three years back. However, due to our demographic structure concerning different age groups, we will encounter difficulties ahead. The number of people within working ages will decrease.

What do you think about how Wisconsin might address that issue?

Many strategies exist, none of which will single-handedly resolve future labor issues. These approaches encompass attracting newcomers to our communities, developing desirable living spaces, addressing housing supply and cost, as well as fostering environments conducive to entrepreneurship.

These are some of the community-oriented approaches individuals or groups might consider. However, enhancing efficiency will also be essential, which may involve utilizing artificial intelligence, automating processes, making additional capital expenditures and acquiring new machinery, as well as exploring innovative manufacturing methods.

Could you inform me about the quickest graying sectors in Wisconsin—the industries with the highest number of employees who are retiring due to age?

We can examine this from two perspectives: through numerical values or percentages. Certain industries may exhibit a substantial proportion of their workforce retiring, yet these might not be among the biggest economic sectors within the state of Wisconsin.

In the sectors of agriculture and natural resources, 31% of workers covered under unemployment insurance legislation are aged 55 or above; however, their total number amounts to roughly 8,400 individuals. Federal agriculture census data reveals approximately 65,000 farmers in Wisconsin within that demographic, with the majority lacking coverage under unemployment insurance regulations.)

But if you look at real estate, transportation, warehousing, wholesale trade, manufacturing and public administration, those are some of the biggest industries that have the highest share of individuals aged 55 or older, with manufacturing certainly being the largest in terms of total numbers with an estimated 131,000 employees aged 55 or older. That’s not surprising given that it’s a very large employment sector in the state.

You can also look at, say, health care and social assistance. They’re below the state average for their share of individuals aged 55 and older, but there’s almost 99,000 of them in that age category. So that’s an industry sector that, as we age as a state, will probably face even greater labor demands.

Of those graying industries, are there any that you’re particularly worried about?

I don’t know if “worried” is the term I would use because different industries will respond in different ways. For instance, manufacturing can probably rely a bit more on things like automation, while other industries might be able to have some of their jobs done remotely. But health care and manufacturing are two very large cornerstones of our economy, and they are going to face challenges with labor availability going forward.

By "remotely," do you mean they could potentially employ workers from different states?

Certainly. However, within an sector such as healthcare, this likely won’t be feasible for the majority of cases.

Could you share information on some of the quickest expanding sectors in Wisconsin?

Honestly, I haven't reviewed the latest figures broken down by specific sectors. However, I can mention that healthcare and social assistance have seen significant growth within the state, which aligns with national trends as well.

We're observing an increase in the requirement for digital competencies across various fields, irrespective of the sector. This trend is particularly pronounced within professions related to technology and specialized services. However, throughout every industrial domain, many employment listings seek individuals who possess at least basic proficiency in digital abilities. These can range widely—from expertise in developing software to simply knowing how to use social media platforms or handle word processors efficiently.

Is there anything else you'd like to discuss?

When considering an aging workforce, companies can seize numerous chances to gather and pass along the extensive expertise these professionals have accumulated throughout their careers. With the influx of newer and younger staff members joining these organizations, isn’t there potential to pair young employees with older ones approaching retirement so that this wealth of knowledge gets shared effectively, ultimately benefiting the company’s future success?

Also, with the aging workforce, are there opportunities to help those who may want to change their occupation or career trajectory going forward? Maybe they’ve done construction labor for a long time and now they want to try something different because they just physically can’t meet the demands anymore. There are a lot of opportunities.We can take advantage of the knowledge, skills and abilities that those individuals have or may want to have going forward.

Do you have questions regarding employment or job training programs in Wisconsin? Alternatively, do you wish to share your experiences with finding suitable jobs or qualified employees with a journalist? Please email reporter Natalie Yahr nyahr@The News Pulse.org Or reach out via phone at 608-616-0752 or send a text. .

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Wisconsin's labor force is growing older. What steps can communities and businesses take to ready themselves for what lies ahead? is a post from Wisconsin Watch , an independent nonprofit news organization focusing on investigations in Wisconsin since 2009. Consider contributing to help fund our journalistic efforts.