Water War Threat: Pakistan Panics as India Vows to Cut Off Vital Supply Over Kashmir Dispute

By Ariba Shahid and Krishna N. Das

In Latifabad, near the dwindling waters of the Indus River, Pakistani farmer Homla Thakhur sprays insecticides on his struggling crops under the scorching sun. He expresses concern over what lies ahead as tensions rise between Pakistan and India. New Delhi has threatened to reduce water flow into Pakistan following a violent assault in Kashmir.

"Should they cut off the water supply, this entire area would transform into a vast Thar Desert, encompassing the whole nation," stated Thakhur, aged 40, as he returned to the river to replenish the tank for his spray gun.

"We'll die of hunger."

His approximately 5-acre (2-hectare) property is situated in the Latifabad region of Sindh’s southeast, near where the Indus River empties into the Arabian Sea. The river begins in Tibet and winds its way through India before reaching this expanse.

Thakhur's concerns were shared by over 15 Pakistani farmers and various other specialists, particularly given the limited rainfall in recent years.

For the first time, on Wednesday, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, mediated by the World Bank, which provides water for 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural lands. This suspension will continue until “Pakistan definitively ceases its support for terrorist activities across the border.”

India says two of the three militants who attacked tourists and killed 26 men in Kashmir were from Pakistan. Islamabad has denied any role and said "any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan ... will be considered as an Act of War".

The treaty split the Indus and its tributaries between the nuclear-armed rivals.

Officials and experts from both countries agree that India cannot abruptly halt water flows since the treaty permits them to construct only hydroelectric power projects—without substantial storage capacity or dams—on the three river systems designated for Pakistan. However, this situation might begin evolving within the next several months.

"We will make sure not a single drop of the Indus River’s water gets to Pakistan," stated India's Water Resources Minister, Chandrackant Raghunath Paatil, on Twitter.

He remained silent when asked about the concerns in Pakistan.

Two anonymous Indian government representatives, opting not to disclose their identities due to the sensitivity of the topic, mentioned that India might begin redirecting water for agricultural purposes through channels within several months. However, they also noted that plans for constructing hydroelectric dams, which may take between four to seven years to complete, were underway as well.

Right away, India plans to cease sharing information such as water flow data across multiple river locations within its territory, halt providing flood alerts, and discontinue annual gatherings under the Permanent Indus Commission, which consists of an appointed representative from each country, according to Kushvinder Vohra, who most recently served as the chief of India’s Central Water Commission.

"They won't have substantial data available when the floodwaters arrive, nor about their magnitude," stated Vohra, who previously served as India’s Indus Commissioner and currently offers occasional advice to the government.

They can't plan without this information.

And it is not just agriculture, a shortage of water will also hit electricity generation and potentially cripple the economy, economists say.

Vaqar Ahmed, an economist and team leader at the UK-based consultancy firm Oxford Policy Management, stated that Pakistan had not adequately assessed the risk of India withdrawing from the agreement.

"India lacks the rapid infrastructure needed to stop water flows, particularly during floods, making this time frame essential for Pakistan to tackle the shortcomings within its water management sector," he stated.

There are numerous inefficiencies and leaks.

RUNNING DISPUTES

In recent times, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has aimed at revising the agreement, with both nations attempting to resolve certain disputes regarding the dimensions of the water reservoir for the Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower facilities through arbitration at thePermanent Court of Arbitration located in The Hague.

"We can now proceed with our initiatives as we see fit," stated Vohra.

On Thursday, India informed Pakistan through a letter that conditions have altered since the treaty’s signing, highlighting growth in population and the necessity for increased clean energy resources, particularly mentioning hydropower.

A representative from the World Bank stated that they were "a signatory to the treaty for a specific range of predefined activities" and added that they do not "offer opinions on treaty-associated sovereign choices made by their member nations."

Nadeem Shah, owner of a 150-acre farm in Sindh cultivating cotton, sugarcane, wheat, and vegetables, expressed his concerns regarding access to clean drinking water as well.

"We have trust in God, but there are concerns over India's actions," he said.

The irrigation system fed by the three rivers, intended for Pakistan—a nation with a population of 240 million—cater to over 16 million hectares of agricultural land, which constitutes as much as 80% of all cultivated areas.

Ghasharib Shaokat from Pakistan Agriculture Research, a research company based in Karachi, stated that India's moves introduce uncertainty into a system "that was not built to handle unpredictability."

“At present, we do not have an alternative,” he stated. “The rivers regulated by the agreement sustain more than just agriculture; they also support urban areas, electricity production, and the sustenance of countless lives.”

The treaty stayed mostly intact despite the four wars between India and Pakistan following their partition in 1947. However, the recent suspension creates a perilous example, according to statements made by Pakistani politicians.

"By now, we are bound to decades of confrontation, and withdrawing from the Indus Water Treaty will lock coming generations into an entirely new framework of discord," stated Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who previously served as Pakistan’s foreign minister.

"That must not happen."

(Reported by Ariba Shahid in Hyderabad and Krishna N. Das in New Delhi; Extra reporting provided by Charlotte Greenfield in Islamabad; Edited by Kim Coghill)