Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support

In 1995, World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin cautioned that while the conflicts of the past century were fought over oil, "the wars of the coming century will be about water." will be contested due to water .”

Three decades later, that forecast is being put to the test in one of the globe's most unstable areas: Kashmir.

On April 24, 2025, the Indian government declared that it would downgrade diplomatic ties with its neighboring country Pakistan over an issue attack by militants In Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists. Due to this easing of tensions, India announced it would proceed immediately pause the Indus Waters Treaty — an old pact dating back many years that permitted both nations to jointly utilize the river waters flowing from India into Pakistan. Pakistan has pledged corresponding actions and cautioned that any interference with its water supply would be regarded as "an act of war."

The present escalation intensified rapidly, yet it has deep roots extending over time. Indus Basin Water Project At Ohio State University, we are actively involved in a multiyear project examining the cross-border water conflict between Pakistan and India.

Currently, I'm in Pakistan carrying out field research in Kashmir and throughout the Indus Basin. The geopolitical strain in this area has intensified due to the latest incident in Pahalgam, located in Indian-controlled Kashmir. This situation significantly jeopardizes the water agreement. Additionally, another element contributing to heightened tensions is climate change.

An equitable resolution for conflicts over water resources

The Indus River has sustained life for millennia due to its waters. Harappan civilization , which thrived between approximately 2600 to 1900 B.C.E., located in present-day Pakistan and northwestern India.

After the division of India in 1947 , control of the Indus River system became a major source of tension between the two nations that emerged from partition: India and Pakistan. Disputes arose almost immediately, particularly when India temporarily halted water flow to Pakistan in 1948, prompting fears over agricultural collapse. These early confrontations led to years of negotiations, culminating in the signature of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960 .

Brokered by the World Bank The Indus Waters Treaty has often been praised as one of the most successful accords for sharing waters between neighboring countries.

This agreement split the Indus Basin between the two nations, granting India authority over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—and Pakistan jurisdiction over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Initially, this appeared to be an equitable resolution. However, the treaty was crafted with a vastly dissimilar global landscape in mind. In those days, India and Pakistan had just achieved their independence and were striving to carve out their identities during the era of the Cold War when the globe was bifurcated between competing superpowers.

When it was signed, Pakistan had a population of 46 million people, while India’s stood at 436 million. Nowadays, these figures have changed. rose above 240 million and 1.4 billion , respectively.

Today, over 300 million individuals depend on the Indus River Basin for their livelihood.

This has intensified the strain on the valuable water resource located between the areas. two nuclear rivals . The effects of global warming, and the continued fighting over the disputed region of Kashmir, has only added to those tensions.

Impact of melting glaciers

A lot of current issues stem from what was omitted from the treaty rather than what was actually included.

When the agreement was signed, there weren’t yet extensive research papers on the equilibrium state of glaciers. It was presumed that the Himalayan glaciers, crucial for supplying water to the Indus river network, remained fairly steady.

This lack of detailed measurements This meant that future alterations caused by climate variability and glacial melting were not included in the treaty’s planning. Additionally, issues like groundwater depletion, contamination of water from pesticides, fertilizers, and industrial waste were also overlooked. Furthermore, significant possibilities for extensive hydraulic projects in the area involving dams, reservoirs, canals, and hydropower generation were mostly disregarded within the framework of the treaty.

Considering modern beliefs regarding glacier consistency, the delegates presumed that water flow patterns would continue to match historical levels.

Rather than that, the glaciers supplying the Indus Basin started melting. Actually, this process continues today. melting at record rates .

The World Meteorological Organization stated that 2023 ranked as the warmest year worldwide. most arid year in more than thirty years , experiencing reduced river levels that have adversely affected farming activities and natural habitats. Additionally, global glaciers underwent their most significant reduction in mass over the past five decades, contributing more than 600 gigatons of water to rivers and seas.

The Himalayan glaciers, which provide 60-70% of the Indus River’s summertime water volume are decreasing quickly. A 2019 study suggests they are losing 8 billion tons of ice annually.

A study conducted by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development revealed that the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan region showed similar trends. glaciers melted 65% faster from 2011–2020 contrasted with the preceding ten years.

The speed at which glaciers are melting presents a major obstacle to the treaty’s ability to maintain a consistent supply of vital water resources for everyone dependent on the Indus River Basin over time. Although this accelerated melt might briefly boost river levels, it ultimately jeopardizes the sustained availability of water in the future.

Certainly, should this pattern persist, the scarcity of water will worsen, especially affecting Pakistan, which relies significantly on the Indus River during arid periods.

A shortcoming of the Indus Waters Treaty is that it solely focuses on the allocation of surface water and lacks provisions for regulating groundwater usage, an issue that has grown more significant over time. major concern in both India and Pakistan .

In the Punjab area — frequently called the breadbasket of both countries — excessive dependence on groundwater is causing overexploitation and depletion .

Groundwater now contributes a large portion Approximately 48% of water withdrawals occur in the Indus Basin, notably during dryer periods. However, according to reports from the World Bank, there is currently no cross-border mechanism established for managing this shared resource collaboratively.

A disputed region

The neglect of both climate change and groundwater was not the only oversight made by the drafters of the Indus Waters Treaty. The Indian and Pakistani negotiators also failed to address the issues surrounding the status and control of Kashmir.

Since the partition in 1947, Kashmir has remained central to the tensions between India and Pakistan. When freedom from colonial rule came, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was presented with the choice to join either India or Pakistan. Despite having a Muslim-majority population, the area was ruled by a Hindu leader who decided to align with India, which set off the conflict. first India-Pakistan war .

This led to a U.N.-mediated ceasefire in 1949 And thus came about the establishment of the Line of Control, which essentially split the region into areas controlled separately by India and Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir. From that time onwards, Kashmir continued to be regarded as a contested area, fully claimed by both nations and acting as the primary source of tension. Two further conflicts occurred in 1965 and 1999. , and numerous skirmishes.

Even though it primarily supplies water to the basin, Kashmiris haven't participated in any talks or decisions regarding the treaty.

The area's potential for agriculture and hydroelectric power has been constrained because of limitations placed on utilizing its water resources, thereby Only 19.8% of the hydropower potential has been harnessed. This indicates that Kashmiris on either side—despite residing in an area abundant with water—have been unable to fully benefit From the resources passing through their territory, since water infrastructure has mainly benefited downstream users and catered to broader national interests instead of promoting local growth.

Certain academics contend that the treaty was designed to promote water resource management in Jammu and Kashmir, yet these efforts may not have aligned with the needs of the local population.

India's hydroelectric initiatives in Kashmir -- like the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams — have been a significant source of disagreement. Pakistan has consistently voiced worries that these initiatives might change the water distribution, especially during key farming periods.

Nevertheless, the Indus Waters Treaty lacks specific provisions for addressing such local disagreements, thus leaving the water-related and political issues concerning Kashmir unresolved.

The disputes regarding hydroelectric initiatives in Kashmir had been pushing India and Pakistan towards a diplomatic impasse well before the latest assault occurred.

The disagreements over the Kishanganga and Ratle dams, currently under arbitration in The Hague highlighted the treaty’s increasing incapacity to resolve disputes over shared waters.

In September 2024, India officially did so. called for a review Regarding the Indus Waters Treaty, they mentioned changes in population demographics, increased energy demands, and security issues related to Kashmir.

The treaty currently finds itself in an uncertain position. Although it officially still stands, India’s official request for reconsideration has created ambiguity, pausing important collaborative efforts and raising questions about the agreement’s sustainability over time.

A fair and environmentally friendly agreement?

Proceeding ahead, I contend that for any reform or renegotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty to achieve enduring success, it must recognize the hydrological importance of Kashmir and involve perspectives from all areas within the region.

Leaving Kashmir out of future talks – as neither India nor Pakistan have officially suggested involving Kashmiri participants – will merely perpetuate an established trend of sidelining the region, with choices regarding its assets being made devoid of input from those who reside there.

As discussions around "climate-proofing" the agreement persist, it will be essential to incorporate Kashmiri viewpoints to develop a more just and sustainable cross-border water management system.

Nicholas Breyfogle, Madhumita Dutta, Alexander Thompson, and Bryan G. Mark from the Indus Basin Water Project at Ohio State University were involved in contributing to this piece.

This piece has been republished from The Conversation , a non-profit, independent news agency providing you with factual and reliable insights to help navigate our intricate world. It was authored by: Fazlul Haq , The Ohio State University

Read more:

• Kashmir assaults: Residents caught amid tourism and terror as an uncertain country seeks answers from Modi
• Who are the members of the Resistance Front? A specialist sheds light on the militant organization behind the most recent assault in Kashmir.

Fazlul Haq is not employed by, advises, holds stocks in, or receives financial support from any entity that could gain from this article, nor has he reported any additional associations apart from his academic position.