Poll Spells Troubling News for Trump on Economic Front

President Donald Trump 's tariffs have Americans increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, a new poll shows, as he moves to close trade deals and improve the situation with China amid fears the U.S. could slide into recession.

Why It Matters

Trump won the 2024 election in part due to people's frustration with inflation and his promise to lead the U.S. into a new age of growth. But the economic outlook has substantially worsened due to his trade policies, risking the wrath of voters.

What To Know

About half of Americans are "extremely" or "very" concerned about the possibility of the U.S. economy going into a recession in the next few months, according to the latest AP-NORC poll.

Roughly half of U.S. adults say that Trump's trade policies will increase prices "a lot" and another three in 10 think prices could go up "somewhat."

Roughly sixty percent of American adults express significant worry regarding grocery expenses over the coming months, whereas approximately fifty percent are intensely worried about the costs associated with major acquisitions like automobiles, cellphones, or household appliances.

Researchers surveyed 1,260 U.S. adults between April 17-21, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Trump's Trade Movements

Markets suffered sharp losses in the days after Trump's unleashing of reciprocal tariffs across the world, seeing a painful economic fallout ahead as supply chains are disrupted and costs soar for businesses and consumers.

They then recovered somewhat when Trump paused his reciprocal rates on all but China to allow space for trade negotiations, but investors are still gripped by uncertainty and the ever-changing trade picture.

Trump has subsequently toned down his stance on China, stating that he might significantly reduce tariffs after raising them considerably. He has called for Beijing to strike an equitable agreement with him as a way to settle the trade conflict.

A significant number of Americans doubt whether Trump’s tariffs represent the correct strategy. The AP-NORC survey indicates that roughly six out of ten people believe Trump has taken excessive measures with his imposition of fresh tariffs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the projected economic growth for the U.S. in 2025 would be only 1.8%, which represents a significant decline compared to their earlier prediction of 2.7%. This estimate is also one percentage point lower than what they anticipate as the expansion rate for 2024, largely due to the ongoing trade conflict.

Although the IMF doesn't anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has increased the likelihood of one occurring from 25 percent to around 40 percent.

What People Are Saying

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt mentioned on Tuesday that the Trump administration has been presented with 18 formal suggestions regarding trade from various nations since the implementation of tariffs on April 2. She also noted that the trade delegation conducted discussions with representatives from 34 different countries earlier this week.

Significant advancements are underway," Leavitt stated to journalists, further noting: "We are proceeding at Trump velocity to guarantee these agreements benefit the American workforce and citizens.

James Pethokoukis A senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research organization, informed Reuters: “We have a president who pledged a golden era. However, all that was meant to rise has fallen, and whatever should have descended has risen instead.”

What's Next

The Trump administration is pursuing ongoing trade discussions with numerous partners aiming to establish new agreements that could reduce or eliminate the tariffs imposed on them and prevent retaliatory actions against the U.S.

The report in this article relies on coverage from The Associated Press.

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