Nuclear Stakes High: Why the India-Pakistan Conflict Could Ignite a Crisis

-Analysis-

PARIS When two nuclear-armed nations stand on the verge of conflict, their situation demands complete focus. In this scenario, India and Pakistan find themselves in rapidly worsening circumstances where the potential for a total clash is very real and cannot be dismissed lightly.

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On Tuesday, 25 Indian tourists and one Nepalese individual were killed in Kashmir, a contested territory. India and Pakistan This marks one of the most significant incidents in recent times, with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi responding strongly, making his initial remarks in public. since the attack to chase the criminals "unto the farthest corners of the Earth."

The Indian government swiftly blamed Pakistan, alleging that it was the "mastermind" behind armed Islamist factions in Kashmir. This led to a continuous cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation, escalating tensions further. Diplomats were expelled from both countries, all Indians residing in Pakistan were sent back home, and Pakistan shut down its airspace to flights originating from India.

However, one of the gravest issues is New Delhi’s unmatched decision to suspend an accord regarding shared use of a cross-border river, the Indus. Originating in the Tibetan plateau, this river traverses India before reaching Pakistan, where it plays a crucial role in agricultural activities.

The Indian authorities did not clarify what they meant by the "suspension" of the pact; however, Pakistan cautioned that any disruption in the water flow would be regarded as an "act of war."

Islamabad also stated that Pakistan’s reaction would encompass "the entire range of national capabilities," which was an indirect reference to potential military action. nuclear weapons .

Denying responsibility

Pakistan rejects all accountability for Monday’s incident, yet Indian authorities assert they have pinpointed three attackers, with reports suggesting that two might be Pakistani nationals. These individuals are thought to be affiliated with an infamous militant organization known as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which was also implicated in the assault on a high-end hotel in Mumbai back in 2008; this tragic event resulted in over 175 fatalities—marking it as India’s deadliest terror strike ever documented. Consequently, Islamabad has faced prior allegations regarding complicity in such acts.

The most recent military confrontation between these two nations occurred in 2019, following a car bombing incident in Kashmir. This skirmish in the sky did not last long. However, experts present believe that the ongoing crisis is far graver compared to what transpired in 2019, with tensions rising at an accelerated pace.

Partition ghosts

The dispute The longstanding tension between these two nations traces back to the UK’s division of the country in 1947, which led to massive forced migrations. Following this divide, they've engaged in multiple conflicts and both acquired nuclear capabilities by the late 1990s.

The disordered global situation isn't making things easier.

Up until now, the presence of the ultimate weapon in possession of both military forces has served as a check, with all parties hoping this remains the case. However, each instance of tension brings potential danger, particularly because core issues like Kashmir, border disputes, and local competition haven’t shown any indications of being resolved soon.

The tumultuous global situation isn't making things easier; we're currently experiencing a resurgence in power battles. Prime Minister Modi Nor do the Pakistani generals want to lose face.

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The piece initially surfaced on The News Pulse It was translated and adapted by The News Pulsepartnership with FRANCE INTER .

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