Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, picks, horses, time, odds: Best bets by expert who hit last year's winner

Burnham Square isn't at the top of the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but he was the top point-scorer during the Road to the Kentucky Derby to secure his position in the biggest annual event in horse racing. Burnham Square has won two of his three starts since the beginning of February, most recently claiming the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8. He is 15-1 to win the Kentucky Derby 2025 at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3, and given his recent success, could he hold value as one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to target? Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025, followed by other proven winners like Sandman (8-1), Sovereignty (8-1), Rodriguez (10-1) and Tappan Street (10-1).

Of these 2025 Kentucky Derby prospects, which one is most likely to claim victory in the Run for the Roses, and might any of them have what it takes to be only the thirdTriple Crown champion this century? Prior to placing your bets on the 2025 Kentucky Derby, ensure you've considered all factors. Check out what SportsLine horse racing analyst Gene Menez has to share before finalizing your 2025 Kentucky Derby selections or placing any horse racing bets. .

As a previous journalist and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez reported on various sports such as horse racing both for the print edition and their online platform for nearly 14 years. During his tenure from 2010 to 2012, he acted as SI’s specialist for predicting outcomes in the Triple Crown events, successfully forecasting Super Saver to triumph in the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, Menez correctly predicted the Kentucky Derby superfecta, resulting in a payout of $1,268.20 for a $2 wager. Then, in 2017, he shared his Kentucky Derby selections via Twitter, recommending Always Dreaming to secure victory. His prediction was successful as he managed to nail the Pick 4, earning nearly $6,900 from a $1 stake.

Last May, Menez scored with the 18-1 underdog Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby. Then, in November, he aced the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday, walking away with a substantial $5,303 payout. This year, his winning streak continued as he picked the victor and correctly identified the exacta finisher in the Holy Bull Stakes, followed by selecting not only the winner but also nailing down the trifecta and superfecta combinations in the Florida Derby.

For the Run for the Roses, Menez has analyzed the 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders, shared his selections, and put together his top wagers. You can visit SportsLine right away to check them out. .

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

Among Menez’s unexpected predictions for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is his decision to bet against Sandman, despite the horse's victory in the Arkansas Derby and status as one of the key contenders. Sandman descends from Tapit, currently the leading active sire whose offspring have earned him $1.09 million, including a win at the Arkansas Derby where the overall prize was $1.5 million. Nonetheless, although Tapit retired after racing ended in 2004, none of his 14 previous runners have claimed victory in the Kentucky Derby.

Sandman is coached by Mark E. Casse, who has yet to claim victory in the Kentucky Derby. Despite having several horses compete in the race’s opening stage, Casse hasn’t managed to secure the top spot with any of them, which does not bolster Sandman’s prospects.

In 2025, the Kentucky Derby will mark Sandman's sixth appearance in a graded stakes race, where he has achieved a record of 1-4 in such competitions, even though four out of these five have been at either Grade 2 or Grade 3 level. Menez does not find enough value in Sandman at his present odds. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine .

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks

Menez' top pick is a horse who "is bred to only get better with the added distance." He's also high on a double-digit longshot who owns "the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls." Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine .

Who emerges victorious in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, and which underdog with a two-digit number should you definitely consider betting on? Take a look at the updated 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below before making your decision. Head over to SportsLine to check out Menez's predictions for the Kentucky Derby, provided by the same expert who identified Mystik Dan as an 18-1 underdog winner in last year’s event. .

2025 Kentucky Derby probabilities, future bets

Horse	Odds	Projection
Journalism	3-1	SEE PICKS
Sandman	8-1	SEE PICKS
Sovereignty	8-1	SEE PICKS
Rodriguez	10-1	SEE PICKS
Tappan Street	10-1	SEE PICKS
Burnham Square	15-1	SEE PICKS
Luxor Cafe	15-1	SEE PICKS
Citizen Bull	20-1	SEE PICKS
East Avenue	20-1	SEE PICKS
Grande	20-1	SEE PICKS
Owen Almighty	50-1	SEE PICKS
Tiztastic	20-1	SEE PICKS
American Promise	30-1	SEE PICKS
Chunk of Gold	30-1	SEE PICKS
Coal Battle	30-1	SEE PICKS
Final Gambit	30-1	SEE PICKS
Publisher	30-1	SEE PICKS
Admire Daytona	50-1	SEE PICKS
Flood Zone	50-1	SEE PICKS
Flying Mohawk	50-1	SEE PICKS