Kashmir Attack: What History Reveals About a Potential Indian Response to Pakistan

Pakistan stated on Wednesday that it possessed "reliable information" suggesting India could initiate a military assault against them in the coming days.

In the meantime, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired several security conferences on Tuesday and Wednesday, fueling speculations about an imminent military action by India against its main adversary following the assault on visitors in Pahalgam within Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22, where 26 individuals lost their lives.

Following the assault, the already tenuous ties between these nuclear-capable South Asian neighbors have deteriorated even more, resulting in reduced diplomatic interactions, withdrawal from mutual agreements, and an effective ban on each other's citizens.

The subcontinent remains tense. However, the likelihood of an Indian military reaction to the Pahalgam killings and the potential nature of such a response remain uncertain. To gain insight into this situation, let's examine historical precedents:

What happened?

Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar stated during a televised address late Tuesday night that they possessed "reliable information" suggesting India intended to launch a military strike against Pakistan within the following "24 to 36 hours."

Tarar mentioned that this move would serve as India’s reaction under the "pretense of groundless and fabricated accusations" regarding involvement in the incident at Pahalgam. Despite India accusing Pakistan of being involved in the Pahalgam attack, Islamabad has refuted these claims.

India and Pakistan both control portions of Kashmir, yet they each assert complete sovereignty over the region.

Tarar’s comment followed a day after Modi informed the Indian military of having "full operational autonomy" to counter the Pahalgam attack during a private gathering with national security officials, as several news outlets cited unnamed high-ranking governmental informants.

On Wednesday, Modi led a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting, which was the second one since the incident at Pahalgam, according to state-owned Doordarshan television.

At the same time, as neighbors kept exchanging fire along the Line of Control (LoC), which separates Indian and Pakistani-controlled areas of Kashmir, other global leaders intensified diplomatic efforts to ease tensions.

"We are contacting both sides and instructing them not to heighten the tension," said a U.S. State Department representative to journalists on Tuesday, citing remarks from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who plans to converse with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan.

On Tuesday, the spokesperson for United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that he had contacted Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, offering assistance in "calming tensions."

What kind of military operation might India undertake?

It remains uncertain what steps India might choose to pursue; however, historically, they have employed various military strategies. Below are several examples of these approaches:

Covert military operations

Intentionally, these operations remain undisclosed and unverified. Nevertheless, throughout the years, both India and Pakistan have carried out numerous clandestine incursions into territories held by the opposing side. Their targets often include military installations where soldiers are killed at times even facing decapitation of their adversaries.

Such strikes are frequently conducted as a vengeful measure by a military unit that was initially targeted itself, serving as a means of payback.

However, these attacks are never verified; the purpose is to communicate with another nation without provoking an immediate response, thus controlling the chance of escalating tensions. Making public statements can create internal pressure on administrations to retaliate.

Publicised ‘surgical strikes’

Occasionally, the objective isn't to convey nuanced signals; instead, it’s about publicly shaming another nation through a direct assault. This approach can also be advantageous from a political standpoint.

In the past, India has conducted what are known as surgical strikes against particular, selected objectives across the Line of Control – with the most recent instance occurring in 2016.

Following the incident where armed militants killed 17 Indian soldiers in Uri, located in Indian-controlled Kashmir, specialized units of the Indian Army ventured across the unofficial borderline aiming to target "launch pads" purportedly used as bases for potential attacks against India. According to statements made by New Delhi, these locations served as staging grounds for terrorists preparing another assault within Indian territory. In response, Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh—who was at that time serving as the director-general of military operations for the Indian Army—stated: “Our actions were primarily directed towards preventing these terrorists from achieving their objective of infiltrating and causing harm, thus safeguarding the safety of our nation’s populace.” public statement , revealing the raid.

India stated that the surgical strike resulted in the deaths of numerous militants; however, independent experts suggest that the actual number was probably significantly smaller.

Aerial strikes

In February 2019, a suicide bombing resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian paramilitary troops in Pulwama within the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir, just prior to the nation’s general elections. The assault was attributed to Jaish-e-Mohammad, an outfit operating out of Pakistan.

In response to widespread anger, the Indian Air Force conducted an air strike in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. India stated that they had targeted terrorist hideouts and eliminated numerous militants.

Pakistan maintained that Indian aircraft struck only a wooded area and caused no casualties among militants. Islamabad stated that their jets were launched to pursue and drive back the Indian planes over the Line of Control.

But a day later, Indian and Pakistani fighter jets again engaged in a dogfight – this one ending with Pakistan downing an Indian plane inside territory it controls. An Indian fighter pilot was captured, and returned a few days later.

Efforts to seize territory controlled by Pakistan

In recent years, there has been an increasing demand in India for New Delhi to reclaim Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. This sentiment has intensified following the Pahalgam attack, with even senior figures from the opposing Congress Party urging the Modi administration to regain control over that region.

Although reclaiming Pakistan-controlled Kashmir continues to be a policy aim for all Indian governments, the evenly matched military strengths of both nations render such an endeavor improbable.

Nevertheless, India has a history of effectively seizing contested territories from Pakistan.

In 1984, the Indian Army and Indian Air Force initiated Operation Meghdoot, swiftly seizing control of the Siachen Glacier in the Himalayas, thereby preventing the Pakistani Army from gaining access to vital routes. As one of the globe’s biggest non-polar ice masses, Siachen has become the Earth’s most elevated battlefield ever since, with Indian and Pakistani military posts facing off at extreme altitudes.

Naval missions

Following the Pahalgam attack, the Indian Navy stated that it had conducted missile tests.

"The Indian Navy announced on April 27 that their vessels successfully conducted various anti-ship missile tests to reaffirm and showcase the preparedness of the equipment, ships, and personnel for executing extended-range precise offensive strikes," according to an official statement.

“The Indian Navy remains battle-ready, capable, and prepared for the future, ensuring the country’s maritime interests are protected at all times and in any location.”

Numerous experts have indicated that these trials demonstrated power, highlighting the Indian Navy’s capability to attack Pakistani soil should they receive such orders.

A full-blown military conflict

India and Pakistan have engaged in warfare four times throughout their 78 years of independence. Three of these military confrontations were centered around Kashmir.

Two months following the departure of the British colonial administration from the subcontinent in August 1947, having divided it into India and Pakistan, the two nations engaged in their initial conflict over Kashmir, which was at that time under the rule of a monarch.

Pakistani armed groups entered Kashmir aiming to seize power. King Hari Singh sought assistance from India. In response, New Delhi consented to join the conflict against Pakistan, provided that Singh signed an instrument of accession, integrating Kashmir into India. The monarch accepted this proposal.

The conflict ultimately concluded on January 1, 1949, following a cease-fire accord. Since that time, both India and Pakistan have retained control over portions of Kashmir respectively.

In 1965, an altercation along their frontier developed into a comprehensive conflict. Pakistani troops breached the cease-fire line into Indian-controlled Kashmir, whereas Indian soldiers infiltrated across the international boundary into Pakistan’s Lahore region and initiated assaults. Following numerous fatalities on each side, a United Nations Security Council resolution assisted these neighboring nations in bringing the war to a close.

In 1971, Pakistan and India were embroiled in an armed conflict over East Pakistan, where Indian forces helped liberate the territory, leading to the establishment of Bangladesh. In 1972, the two countries signed the Simla Agreement , which set up the LoC.

In 1999, the Pakistani military breached the Line of Control (LoC), leading to the onset of the Kargilo conflict. Following intense combat in the frigid elevations of the Ladakh area, Indian forces managed to repel the Pakistanis.