India and Pakistan Again Teeter on the Brink Over Disputed Kashmir

An assault targeting visitors in Indian-administered Kashmir once more brought India and Pakistan nearer to conflict, causing both nations to reduce their diplomatic and commercial relations, close the principal border checkpoint, and rescind visa privileges for citizens of each country.

Pakistan has refuted allegations that it was responsible for the assault that took place on Tuesday, which resulted in the deaths of 26 predominantly Indian tourists at a well-known tourist site in the Himalayas. Despite claims from India about restoring peace in the area amid an ongoing insurgency lasting several decades, tension remains. The act was attributed to a faction known as Kashmir Resistance.

Here’s what you should understand regarding an increase in hostilities between these two nuclear-armed adversaries. These nations have engaged in two out of their three total conflicts over Kashmir, a region divided between them and claimed entirely by each side.

What lies at the core of the disagreement?

The relationship between India and Pakistan has been influenced by conflicts, tense diplomatic exchanges, and reciprocal mistrust, particularly due to their rival assertions over the beautiful Himalayan territory of Kashmir.

For decades, armed militants in Kashmir have challenged New Delhi’s control, receiving backing from numerous Muslim Kashmiris who aspire to unite the region either through Pakistani governance or as a separate nation. India blames Pakistan for instigating unrest, which Pakistan refutes. The ongoing dispute has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties among civilians, rebel fighters, and government troops over the years.

What has been Pakistan's reaction to India's counteractions?

On Tuesday, armed assailants killed 26 individuals, primarily Indian visitors, in an incident close to the scenic town of Pahalgam. The government in New Delhi promptly connected Pakistan to the assault; however, they did not present any concrete proof openly.

India has imposed several retaliatory actions. The country demoted its diplomatic relations, halted an important agreement for sharing water resources with Islamabad, and on Thursday, the Indian Foreign Ministry stated that it would revoke all visas granted to individuals from Pakistan. Additionally, India mentioned that it plans to decrease personnel at its High Commission in Pakistan and limit the number of Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi to 30 instead of 55 starting from May 1st.

Pakistan labeled India's moves as "reckless" and revoked visas for Indians, halted all commerce with India, even through intermediary nations, and shut down its skies to Indian planes.

Islamabad cautions that a conflict over water resources might result in warfare.

India's choice to halt the water agreement might signify a significant shift in how both countries handle a crucial shared asset. Pakistan cautioned on Thursday that should India try to obstruct or redirect the water supply, it would be regarded as "an act of war."

The Indus Waters Treaty, facilitated by the World Bank in 1960, enables the distribution of water from a river system crucial to both nations. This agreement has endured military conflicts between these countries in 1965 and 1971, as well as significant border clashes in 1999.

The agreement regulates the distribution of the waters from the Indus river network and its branches. According to this pact, India manages the eastern rivers—the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas—while Pakistan oversees the western rivers—the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus—that traverse through the Kashmir area.

The water agreement is deemed a 'critical national concern' for Pakistan.

Pakistan stated that the treaty was a legally binding international accord facilitated by the World Bank and included no clauses allowing for unilaterally suspending its terms. The nation characterized it as crucial for their national interests and essential for sustaining the well-being of Pakistan’s 240 million inhabitants.

This agreement is crucial for addressing Pakistan’s agricultural and hydroelectric requirements. Halting it might result in water scarcity during a period when sections of the nation are already grappling with drought and decreasing precipitation levels.

Attacks by militants hinder peace initiatives

Even though their relationship is mostly tense, the neighbors occasionally attempt to make peace. Nonetheless, frequent border incidents and several militant assaults in Kashmir and India have undermined these attempts at reconciliation. This is further complicated by New Delhi’s firm stance against Islamabad, which they accuse of supporting terrorism.

In 1999, insurgents backed by Pakistan along with Pakistani forces occupied Indian military outposts in the frigid mountains of the Kargil area. In response, Indian forces took action leading to a 10-week battle where at minimum 1,000 personnel from both sides lost their lives. The hostilities ceased following American mediation.

In 2008, a team from the Pakistan-based militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, equipped with sophisticated weapons, carried out a violent attack in Mumbai, India's economic hub, resulting in the deaths of 166 individuals. Following this incident, New Delhi accused Pakistan's intelligence agency of involvement; however, Islamabad refuted these claims.

In 2019, a suicide car bomb attack claimed the lives of 40 Indian troops stationed in Kashmir, pushing both nations toward armed conflict. Following this incident, India announced that its air force had targeted a terrorist training facility within Pakistani territory. Consequently, Pakistan retaliated with airstrikes, shot down one Indian military plane, and took hold of an Indian pilot before eventually releasing him back home.

Several months after, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration abolished Kashmir's semi-autonomous status and enforced extensive security protocols. From that point onward, India maintained control over the area through a significant military deployment and severely restricted protests, fundamental rights, and press freedom.

Worries of nuclear confrontation

Over time, both India and Pakistan have expanded their military forces and stockpiled nuclear weapons. In 1974, India conducted its initial nuclear test, succeeded by another one in 1998. Within weeks following this, Pakistan carried out its own series of nuclear tests. Since then, they have equipped themselves with numerous nuclear warheads, sophisticated missile launch systems, cutting-edge combat aircraft, and contemporary weaponry for mutual deterrence.

Roy works as a writer for the Associated Press.

This tale initially surfaced in Los Angeles Times .